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so thrax who you voting for in the primary?
montecarlo wrote
at 11:21 AM, Tuesday January 3, 2012 EST
romney or paul?

oh virginia....

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@SecretVeta wrote
at 9:24 AM, Wednesday January 4, 2012 EST
He has to be electable in the national election & primaries brah.
Thraxle wrote
at 9:42 AM, Wednesday January 4, 2012 EST
<------voting Republican (even if it was Bachmann)
deadcode wrote
at 10:03 AM, Wednesday January 4, 2012 EST
Veta; generally you are a numbers guy. I'm not sure why you can't see the math for a Ron Paul win.

First off, he only was 3.2% behind 1st in Iowa. He is incredibly popular in big delegate states like California and New York; amongst a shit ton of other states that have more delegates then Iowa.

But let's talk only of Iowa. Iowa like all early primary/caucasus isn't a winner takes all state. This means that the delegates will be split between the Ron, Romney, and Santorum almost equally. You do the math; divide the 15 delegates between candidates when the difference between 1st and 3rd is 3.2%.

Now let's add that in with the fact that Ron Paul elected more county delegates then either Romney or Santorum.

For those who are not familiar with Iowa; the Iowa contest yesterday elects county delegates. They wait till basically the end of the primary season before having those county delegates elect the national delegates.

So with that being said; if Santorum ends up dropping out of the race in the future; which is definition possible; those county delegates can now decide to vote for Romney or Paul. Presumably more would go for Paul then Romney; considering Paul won more county delegates; even while losing the popular vote.

Anyway; once again I'm doing analysis for people; who I'm pretty sure do not care; but whatever I generally have faith in people's ability to reason. And it is my opinion; that any reasonable person could not call this race yet.
K8Dice wrote
at 10:44 AM, Wednesday January 4, 2012 EST
monte speaks truth. romney cant win states like minnesota (not that thats a big loss to him :P) but here many democrats are not happy with obama and the republicans of the north actually did vote for paul 4 years ago. the mood is very similar across other states in the midwest as well...though dont ask about wisconsin they do whatever the freak they feel like over there haha.
MadHat_Sam wrote
at 11:08 AM, Wednesday January 4, 2012 EST
Romney:Obama :: Kerry:Bush

You are kinda dumb if you think otherwise. Iowa doesn't fucking matter, Ron Paul held his own so it is a win for him. Romney is going to annihilate the field in New Hampshire, I would think something like a 10-15% margin of victory.

wishbone wrote
at 11:53 AM, Wednesday January 4, 2012 EST
fuck one state primaries. super tuesday!
Thraxle wrote
at 12:57 PM, Wednesday January 4, 2012 EST
bummer
bcmatteagles wrote
at 1:22 PM, Wednesday January 4, 2012 EST
There isn't a large enough facepalm for deadcode continuing to think that Ron Paul has a chance. Wow. He is obviously living in his own world with Ron Paul.
deadcode wrote
at 1:49 PM, Wednesday January 4, 2012 EST
And what a great world it is!

See ya on the flip side.
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