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the possibility you win
191078819 wrote
at 7:49 PM, Sunday October 19, 2008 EDT
hi all!

i calculated the possibility that attackers and defencer(?) will win. ill show below.

(if someone already calculated, sorry)

a = the number of dices that attacker owns.
d = the number of dices that defencer owns.
p(a,b) = the possibility that attacker will win.


p(8,8) = 0.470
p(8,7) = 0.673
p(8.6) = 0.843
p(8,5) = 0.947
p(8,4) = 0.989
p(8,3) = 0.999 (0.9990)
p(8.2) = 0.999 (0.99997)
p(8,1) = 1.000

p(7,8) = 0.274
p(7,7) = 0.468
p(7,6) = 0.685
p(7,5) = 0.862
p(7,4) = 0.961
p(7,3) = 0.994
p(7,2) = 0.999 (0.9998)
p(7,1) = 1.000

p(6,8) = 0.121
p(6,7) = 0.259
p(6,6) = 0.466
p(6,5) = 0.699
p(6,4) = 0.883
p(6,3) = 0.975
p(6,2) = 0.998
p(6,1) = 0.999 (0.99995)

p(5,8) = 0.036
p(5,7) = 0.103
p(5,6) = 0.242
p(5,5) = 0.463
p(5,4) = 0.717
p(5,3) = 0.909
p(5,2) = 0.987
p(5,1) = 0.999 (0.9998)

p(4,8) = 0.006
p(4,7) = 0.025
p(4,6) = 0.083
p(4,5) = 0.220
p(4,4) = 0.459
p(4,3) = 0.742
p(4,2) = 0.939
p(4,1) = 0.997

p(3,8) = 0.000 (0.0004)
p(3,7) = 0.003
p(3,6) = 0.014
p(3,5) = 0.060
p(3,4) = 0.191
p(3,3) = 0.453
p(3,2) = 0.778
p(3,1) = 0.973

p(2,8) = 0.000 (0.000005)
p(2,7) = 0.000 (0.00007)
p(2,6) = 0.000 (0.0007)
p(2,5) = 0.006
p(2,4) = 0.035
p(2,3) = 0.152
p(2,2) = 0.443
p(2,1) = 0.837

(needless to say, for example, p(7,8) + p(8,7) is not equal to 1)

what do you feel about these numbers??


« First ‹ Previous Replies 21 - 26 of 26
montecarlo wrote
at 12:54 PM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT
Thraxle,
The fact that you are a Redskins fan is evidence that you are wrong.
Thraxle wrote
at 12:57 PM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT
Don't hate on my boys.............they're better than ANY OF YOU gave them credit for.

Easy schedule for the rest of the year too.

Cincy on the road
Detroit on the road
Seattle on the road
San Fran on the road

no divisional road games left........

11-5 looks real attainable right now. Maybe 12-4...........
ChristianSoldier wrote
at 12:59 PM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT
Somehow I knew that whomever did what Monte asked for, would be rewarded thusly.
montecarlo wrote
at 1:18 PM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT
i wouldve been more appreciative, but thrax did not include the critical 3v7 stat, just so i could brag that my 2v6 win was more monumental than wish's 3v7 win. btw, my titans are still on track for a 19-0 season.
Thraxle wrote
at 1:35 PM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT
It looks like I listed 3v8 twice........the second one should be 3v7, which has odds of 1 in 346.
191078819 wrote
at 6:19 AM, Tuesday October 21, 2008 EDT
to CS

maybe, this discussion was over, but i thank you for telling me my mistake. p(6,1) is not 0.99995, but 0.999996.(more preciously, 0.9999961~0.9999964).

Thank you.
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