Forum
the possibility you win
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191078819 wrote
at 7:49 PM, Sunday October 19, 2008 EDT
hi all!
i calculated the possibility that attackers and defencer(?) will win. ill show below. (if someone already calculated, sorry) a = the number of dices that attacker owns. d = the number of dices that defencer owns. p(a,b) = the possibility that attacker will win. p(8,8) = 0.470 p(8,7) = 0.673 p(8.6) = 0.843 p(8,5) = 0.947 p(8,4) = 0.989 p(8,3) = 0.999 (0.9990) p(8.2) = 0.999 (0.99997) p(8,1) = 1.000 p(7,8) = 0.274 p(7,7) = 0.468 p(7,6) = 0.685 p(7,5) = 0.862 p(7,4) = 0.961 p(7,3) = 0.994 p(7,2) = 0.999 (0.9998) p(7,1) = 1.000 p(6,8) = 0.121 p(6,7) = 0.259 p(6,6) = 0.466 p(6,5) = 0.699 p(6,4) = 0.883 p(6,3) = 0.975 p(6,2) = 0.998 p(6,1) = 0.999 (0.99995) p(5,8) = 0.036 p(5,7) = 0.103 p(5,6) = 0.242 p(5,5) = 0.463 p(5,4) = 0.717 p(5,3) = 0.909 p(5,2) = 0.987 p(5,1) = 0.999 (0.9998) p(4,8) = 0.006 p(4,7) = 0.025 p(4,6) = 0.083 p(4,5) = 0.220 p(4,4) = 0.459 p(4,3) = 0.742 p(4,2) = 0.939 p(4,1) = 0.997 p(3,8) = 0.000 (0.0004) p(3,7) = 0.003 p(3,6) = 0.014 p(3,5) = 0.060 p(3,4) = 0.191 p(3,3) = 0.453 p(3,2) = 0.778 p(3,1) = 0.973 p(2,8) = 0.000 (0.000005) p(2,7) = 0.000 (0.00007) p(2,6) = 0.000 (0.0007) p(2,5) = 0.006 p(2,4) = 0.035 p(2,3) = 0.152 p(2,2) = 0.443 p(2,1) = 0.837 (needless to say, for example, p(7,8) + p(8,7) is not equal to 1) what do you feel about these numbers?? |
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ChristianSoldier wrote
at 10:23 AM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT The link is correct. I calculated the same values. Only it's not 36/10,000.. it is 36/10,000,000 as I said earlier (actually I was even more precise).
There is clearly a precision error in the OP's code. |
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Thraxle wrote
at 10:51 AM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT Well CS, you misquoted me a bit as I said it was per 100,000 rolls, but you are correct. It's every 10 million rolls. This means the 6v1 fails once every 277,778 rolls while the 8v2 fails once every 60,240 rolls.
I can't believe I actually agree with something you said! |
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ChristianSoldier wrote
at 11:15 AM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT Mixed emotions... Your agreeing with me increases the probability of error in my comments.
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montecarlo wrote
at 11:58 AM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT can someone else (cus im too lazy) print out the least probable rolls in order with percentages, or wins out of 10,000,000? ofc, dont include the impossible rolls, i.e. 8v1 defense. so, basically, 2v8, 6v1, 8v2, 2v7, etc.... muchos gracias.
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kam|k2 wrote
at 12:00 PM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT yeah, im interrested in the chance of winning 2v3, 3v4 etc, as well.
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skrumgaer wrote
at 12:02 PM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT I have tried working it out on a spreadsheet of all 8-combinations versus all 2-combinations but I don't think I have the proper distribution of 8-combination. My series of frequencies for rolls of 8, 9, 10, etc. for 8 dice goes as
1 8 36 120 330 792 1716 3432 etc. and I think that is not correct. Does someone have the correct series? For the series I have, an 8 v 2 loses 1,001 out of 191,814,480 rolls or once every 191,622 rolls. |
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Thraxle wrote
at 12:28 PM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT Possibility of failure
6v1 1/277,778 8v2 1/60,241 5v1 1/6,667 7v2 1/5,033 8v3 1/1,074 6v2 1/561 4v1 1/370 7v3 1/187 8v4 1/96 5v1 1/83 6v3 1/40 3v1 1/37 7v4 1/26 8v5 1/19 4v2 1/16 5v3 1/11 All of the above rolls have greater than 90% chance of winning. Possibility of success 2v8 1/212,766 2v7 1/14,104 3v8 1/2,213 2v6 1/1,305 3v8 1/346 2v5 1/164 4v8 1/157 3v6 1/67 4v6 1/39 2v4 1/28 5v8 1/27 3v5 1/16 4v6 1/12 All of these rolls have less than 10% chance of winning. |
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Thraxle wrote
at 12:38 PM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT Feel free to debate whether my numbers are right. I realize that I have contradicted skrum's 8v2 statistic............which probably means I'm wrong. I used the percentages given on the wiki site and did simple division based on 5 decimal places for the percentage and 10,000,000 rolls.
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skrumgaer wrote
at 12:41 PM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT Thraxle,
Your having contradicted skrum's 8 v 2 is not evidence that you are wrong. |
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Thraxle wrote
at 12:43 PM, Monday October 20, 2008 EDT Just paying my due respect to the stat master Skrum.
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