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The JeremyS Manifesto - For Ryan and Others Who Care - The state of the new Kdice.
JeremyS wrote
at 6:52 AM, Sunday January 6, 2008 EST
Let me first start that I've enjoyed playing kdice, and I'm not bitter and angry towards anyone, espcially Ryan... I hope that what I have to say will be taken in the spirit of me offering advice as a gamesman rather than an angry "I quit" rant, because, quite frankly, I'm not angry with anyone, and I'm not sure I'm quitting. I am going to take a long and detailed look here at what I perceive to be serious flaws in the new system, but only because I want to see the game continue to improve.

Let me next say that I enjoyed playing this game, especially the game I experienced in December, when I broke into the "1k table" experience and got to meet and compete against the currently active elite players.

And, to be honest, I play games to experience them at the elite level. I hope that doesn't come off as arrogant... what I mean is that I don't judge a game so much by its first blush experience, or the game experience you get hanging out with newbies and bad players, but rather the continuing value it offers to long term players who are proficient.

As such, I spent awhile looking at the top end game of kdice last month, both getting to know the regular players in order to get a feel for how the community was balanced, and looking at what it took to finish at the top.

It was apparent to me fairly quickly that all the complaints about PGA at the 1k tables are whiny nonsesnse. As I was new to the game at the top level and had no allies to speak of, I was in a good position to judge what the truth of these rumours are. The truth is, if you play a fair and balanced game, act friendly, and explain your actions in a reasonably articulate fashion, you will be welcomed by the top tier. Maybe in the days before I started playing, this wasn't true, and there was lots of PGA and cheating, and the top tables got a well deserved bad reputation, but it wasn't true last month.

I also noticed that there was a pretty good balance in terms of rewarding skilled players.

However, under the new system, the balance appears to be gone, and that creates a few distinct problem that leads me to believe I am abandoning the game.

One quick definition: When I say old system, I'm talking about the system as it existed from October to December. I never played in the ELO days and they are irrelevant to this discussion.

There are two big problems under the current system, and believe it or not, I don't think the flagging system is one of them (although it has its quirks as well).

The first problem is that games are no longer a zero sum equation.

I'm not sure if they were precisely zero sum under the old system or not, I didn't look extremely closely at the formulas, but I believe they were close. Basically, the only thing that kept players points across the entire system from adding up to zero total was the fact that players couldn't get negative points. All the points that players had were created at the 0 tables, and gradually trickled up the ladder as players trying to play at new levels donated points to more experienced ones.

Under the new system, each game, at every level, generates more than zero points. In fact, I tracked the points at a 1k table, writing down exactly what everyone got, and it turns out that in each game, the sum total of points earned was EXACTLY 576 points each game, which averages out to just over +82 per player. At the 250 tables, it is exactly 1/4th the score, or 142 points per game added to the pool.

What difference does this make? It means that you can play BELOW AVERAGE at the 1k tables and actually still come out ahead.

Let's consider a player who isn't that great. Maybe at the 250 tables, he does exactly average, or about +20 points a game. Now, at the 1k tables, he does below average, and gets only half of what the total player average is per game. He still gains 40 points per game. So basically, this theoretical mediocre guy gains twice the points per game by doing poorly at 1k than he does by playing averagely at 250!

Before, sitting down at the 1k tables was a scary proposition. You stood to gain a lot, but you also stood to lose a lot. Now, because you're gaining points per game for mediocre play, it actually makes sense to sit at the highest possible table because even if you do somewhat below average, you're going to gain points faster than you would doing somewhat above average at a 200 table.

Our same theroetical average joe under the old system wouldn't have ever made it to the 1k tables in the first place, because by doing exactly average at the 200 tables, his score would remain approximately 200. If he did get to the 1k tables (because scores DO fluctuate), he would have gotten crushed quickly and sent back down to the 200 tables where one would presume he would stay at approximately the same score for the rest of the month.

This is not a problem with points inflation. If scores were simply 5x higher, then the 5k tables would be the new 1k tables, and 1k would be the new 200, and life would continue as it had been. However, the reality now is that the high points tables will not be filled by a small group of quality players, but rather a larger quantity of players who are merely dedicated/addicted. The elite experience of kdice is just going to simply vanish, and mediocrity will spread far and wide.

That's not to say that the best players won't be well represented in the top 25, and playing at the highest tables. I'm sure they will be, because they do far better than average AND play a good bit. But the days when the 1k tables were filled with a small cadre of great players, where there was close to a guarantee that you were playing against the best players in at least 5-6 of the spots on the table, are simply gone. With the pool of players available and willing to play at 1k (remember, our average joe is BETTER REWARDED for playing at 1k than 250), the talent level at the tables is simply diluted.

It gets worse as time goes on. Because average play gains points, that means that the average player will be at 1k fairly quickly, and the talent level at the 1k table will get lower and lower, which means that the average player will start to succeed more, accelerating the problem. I wouldn't be surprised to discover that there will be more 1k games being played than 250 games by the end of the month, and it's entirely possible that the 5k tables will be flooded!

Consider this, we are only four days into the month and already the entire leaderboard is over 5k. Last month, there were only a few 5k games and they were super high-stakes. By the middle of the month, the people at the bottom of the leaderboard will be somewhere in the range of 20k points, and a 5k loss won't even be a big deal.

This last part of my first point may come off sounding arrogant, and I apologize if it does, but it's not intended in that fashion. One of the biggest reasons that I enjoyed playing with the best players at the 1k table last month was because the amount of irrational stuff that happens with those players goes way down. At the 200 tables you constantly saw players do weird stuff, or get vindictive and screw someone even though it cost them any chance of winning as well. At the 1k tables, that element was missing, but not this month. I had someone earlier today with no chance of connecting and with his base on the other side of the board just randomly split me from an island and then restack huge in my middle... he apologized after it happened, but it ruined both of our games. I checked his profile and he is a career sub-1k player before this month (he has 2600 points right now). While in the long term bad play rewards other players, I'd prefer not to even play with people who make those decisions.

The second problem has to do with the new dominance system and the number of starting dice. I think the idea behind the new system - eliminate farming - is great. However, in practice it has created a big problem:

Basically, in the old system, dominance didn't start calculating until after your third move, and people almost always started with a five stack.

That meant that throwing your dice all over the board on turn one was a really bad idea, and people basically called it suiciding. Suiciding across the board usually meant that a couple of players would each take one or two territories from you in establishing their bases cautiously, and you were going to be in terrible shape.

Under the new system, the equation is completely different. First, because five stacks are far less frequent, someone who suicides and has an even-ish build (mostly 2s and 3s) may well wind up holding a large number of the territories he jumped on, because the other players simply can't punish him as effectively.

In addition, the risk/reward balance is totally different.

First, because dominance starts calculating immediately, someone who gets a lot of territories fast and then gets wiped out fast can actually wind up not losing all that much - I saw a 7th place turn 2 finish where the 7th place player wound up with POSITIVE points.

Second, because it's far more likely to actually hold a significant amount of the territory, the player who can suicide best on turn 1 wins an awful lot. I have seen quite a few games essentially decided on turn one, or come down to 2-3 players after turn 1.

Third, because there is no longer a zero sum equation on the board, even if you don't win, you're penalized a lot less for losing.

Last month, when you saw someone going 2v2 or 3v3 on turn one, it was the bold move of a person deseperate to get a consolidated position or a connect. Now, it happens constantly on the first turn simply because the risk of losing dice on turn one is laregly ameliorated by the fact that players are unlikely to be able to punish you for having few dice and the reward increased dominance brings.

What does it add up to? People have become super aggressive on turn one, and instead of games coming down to who can consolidate a well defended position early and then expand and negotiate, the games seem to come down to luck on the first turn rolls, and even the unlucky aren't too bad off thanks to every board being a huge bonus to points.

So, that's why thoughts about the new system. It's probably going to drive me into retirement, because the game has basically gotten a lot less fun... there's no longer any sense of stepping above the pack and playing with the big boys, because the big boys are playing at the same tables as everyone else now. I hope everyone takes my thoughts into consideration for the long term improvement of the game. I don't want people to think that I can't hack it with the new system (I was on the leaderboard the first few days but haven't played as much the past couple), and I don't want to people to think that I reject these changes just because they are changes... I am fine with change as long as it's for the better, I just don't think that that is the case here.

I am also not advocating returning to the December system. I think, however, that a "new-new system" that seeks to end farming but addresses the concerns I've raised here will go a long way towards making kdice a balanced and fun game for everyone.

Thank you for your time.

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nuflis wrote
at 6:29 PM, Sunday January 6, 2008 EST
LionGazoz:

Score: 208
Games: 166
Luck: 48.9%

leekstep:

Score: 16,203
Games: 129
Luck: 48.8%

You are right, it's all about luck.
Agent Zer0 wrote
at 12:11 AM, Monday January 7, 2008 EST

Yeah, I posted an idea to tweak the point system for smaller maps (10 dice starters). It really is unfair for unlucky people or people who start last. Even kamikazes who don't connect still have a bundle of lands that rack up extra dom because a 4 stack's value is much higher to risk a revenge move to punish the kamikaze.

I enjoy the point inflation. I've probably spent more time playing because of it, but I do notice the quality of play declining among higher point members.

I don't think it's a huge problem because kdice always evolve. I learned the game during the elo days, made some decent progress, then I had to relearn it again after elo was scrapped. There was always shifts, but a lot of the greats adapted with the game. Some semi-retired for a couple months only to come back. I think it's a credit to Ryan who has enough patience to stick to a system but also admit its flaws by proactively correcting them.

I am concerned how the point inflation could diminish career stats. I don't have much of a career, but there are some great members that I've played against who will slip after time. Chalk that up to progress I guess.

On a sidenote, I think one major change that has happened is the reduction of backstabbing and broken promises. That might suck for some players who relished upon the tension and anxiety of a neighbor attacking you, or those who liked to spin lies to create division or chaos. It makes kdice less cutthroat, less war-like and Machiavellian. It was something many among the elite did very well and very often. Tactics can mostly be learned after time, even if you win points through luck and brute force playing. What made the elite in the old days was the intrigue that could salvage a bad game into a decent standing or win with some well timed sentences. That might be what you miss, Jeremy.
Big Jumblies wrote
at 2:02 AM, Monday January 7, 2008 EST
I agree Jeremy, that level of respect was apparent even in the ELO days. Seems "Elite" players respect the game and the talented people they play with. Thats what I enjoyed most about the structure of the game before September. The disrespectful ppl had their own (lower) tables and they still never realize they cant get far in the game because of their disrespect for other players.

However, I think the game IS heading back in the right direction and I commend Ryan for the recent changes.
kdicefreak wrote
at 9:07 AM, Monday January 7, 2008 EST
Liongzoz ? I assume you are pretty new here. Some players here actually think that they are better that everybody and will do everything to sway the game to their advantage. They want to keep the fun to themselves instead of making it a better game and fun for everyone.

Having said that, some of the changes suggested here are actually constructive. But the undertone of some of the posts here remains ? I AM BETTER THAN YOU. I AM ELITE AND YOU ARE NOT SO GET LOST.
montecarlo wrote
at 9:41 AM, Monday January 7, 2008 EST
good analysis jeremy.
made me realize why im not enjoying this game as much this month. one of the top reasons i enjoyed the game month in and month out was because i could compete for the #1 position without having to play 1k games per month. what i lacked in playing time, i made up in playing skill (i would like to think). so after around 300 games each month, i would have a good shot at #1 for the month, definitely top ten.

however, as jeremy points out, the game is no longer zero-sum. as a result, this is my experience this month: i play a lot of games on the weekdays, and im able to maintain top ten scores fairly easily. then comes the weekend, when i have always gone home (i play from work), and enjoy time with my wife. it used to be that when i came back in on monday, i would be a few percent back from where i left off as a result of everyone else slowly moving up while i sat still over the weekend. however, now that the game is zero-sum, as long as you are not playing, you are losing ground at an insane pace. simply put, the more time you play this game, the more you get rewarded for average play (even at the top tables).

so as to my prediction for this month (if no changes are made)... there is no way possible that anyone will be able to outdistance the highly-esteemed count yellowfishnoob (aka yellowfin) who has already put in enough time for 158 games this month. leekstep simply does not have the stamina nor the patience (i believe his current 'sprint' of 142 games will in no way endure the long-term payoffs of a yellowfin 'marathon' month). i doubt that even rnd will be able to keep up, seeing as how he has only played 89 games. same with me, as im at 69 games played.

conclusion: quality play is outweighed by quality play in the current non-zero-sum game. and im quickly losing interest in the game, since i am primarily driven by competition, and since i have no logical shot at 1st this month, theres no drive for me to continue playing.
montecarlo wrote
at 9:44 AM, Monday January 7, 2008 EST
*conclusion: quality play is outweighed by QUANTITY play. bad typo there.
kdicefreak wrote
at 10:03 AM, Monday January 7, 2008 EST
"i could compete for the #1 position without having to play 1k games per month"

i think that's actually a GREAT thing.....this prevents the higher score players (presumably higher skills) to play at 0 or 10 tables (to take advantage of player 'lower skill' players) and maintain their top scores.

if you want top scores, go play with the big boys at the 1000 tables with other so-called high skill players. stop taking advantage of others at the lower tables where most of them are beginners.

if you are just here to have fun and not care about scores, play at whatever table you want......if you want to be in the so called elite group, go play with the big dogs, make friends with them so that you guys look out for each other.....or whatever happen in the high tables......
Bahaduras wrote
at 10:56 AM, Monday January 7, 2008 EST
Nice oonversation keep it going. Ryan good work trying to balance everybody interests. Thanks for all the hard work -- can't be easy
rnd wrote
at 11:43 AM, Monday January 7, 2008 EST
kdicefreak; in all seriousness, how many times a day do you recognize another player, on a table, that you don't think is a pga cheater or point farmer?

rnd wrote
at 11:44 AM, Monday January 7, 2008 EST
"i could compete for the #1 position without having to play 1k games per month"

i think that's actually a GREAT thing.....

- you completely misunderstood this comment, but i guess you needed to twist *something* to inject kdicefreakdoctrine into this thread.
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