Who are Player J's helpers? ---- a test of the TASM

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Who are Player J's helpers? ---- a test of the TASM

I have not used the Test Against Selected Modulus (TASM) in a while, but a situation has arisen where it may be useful.
A certain player (let us call him Player J) is in the top 25 but has no wins. Certainly a typo. But that is not the case. Player J is striving to attain first place without any wins.
Now this is where the TASM comes in. The TASM (Test Against Selected Modulus) is designed to spot pgaâ€™s of a particular player. Who is helping Player J attain his goal?
The TASM works as follows. Player J has a percentage profile of 00-30-10-09-13-14-20. If there are only six other players with whom Player J has played games, their collective percentage profile would have to be the modulus of Player Jâ€™s, or 100-70-90-91-87-86-80. Divided equally among the six players, each J-helper would have a percentage profile of 16-12-15-15-15-14-13. The TASM compares a player against this profile (rather than the uniform distribution profile used by the TAPL). The smaller the TASM, the greater the possibility that the player is a pga of Player J.
The TASM is only an approximation. First, the number of helpers of player J may be less or more than six. Second, some helpers may help more than others. Third, many players have played more games than Player J and obviously cannot have helped Player J in all of them.
Here is a list of the top 25 players and their TASMâ€™s. The number of games per player have been normalized to match that of Player J. The smaller the TASM, the more likely a pga. It will be noted that Player J himself has a very large TASM. That is because he canâ€™t be a pga of himself!
12 amenphis 2486â—† 215 15% 17% 14% 15% 11% 15% 10% âˆ« 659 âˆ«
23 Obi-Wan Kenewbie 1695â—† 215 22% 11% 9% 13% 15% 13% 14% âˆ« 744 âˆ«
2 Vohaul 3610â—† 215 22% 16% 11% 16% 10% 15% 6% âˆ« 1617 âˆ«
7 lesplaydices 2679â—† 215 19% 17% 14% 12% 10% 6% 19% âˆ« 1662 âˆ«
4 Linch 3108â—† 215 22% 17% 16% 10% 14% 11% 6% âˆ« 1664 âˆ«
14 MadHat_Sam 2136â—† 215 21% 16% 8% 9% 10% 15% 18% âˆ« 1678 âˆ«
25 sticks&stones 1547â—† 215 24% 9% 12% 22% 12% 9% 10% âˆ« 1781 âˆ«
1 Zosod 4049â—† 215 23% 19% 11% 14% 13% 9% 8% âˆ« 1797 âˆ«
17 bcmatteagles 2041â—† 215 24% 15% 19% 16% 8% 8% 8% âˆ« 2096 âˆ«
11 fish28 2563â—† 215 15% 23% 16% 8% 14% 12% 10% âˆ« 2196 âˆ«
16 Hart 2084â—† 215 22% 18% 14% 13% 18% 9% 3% âˆ« 2436 âˆ«
9 wishbone 2656â—† 215 24% 18% 16% 9% 16% 12% 4% âˆ« 2487 âˆ«
13 seï¿½kin 2217â—† 215 18% 20% 12% 6% 18% 6% 18% âˆ« 2624 âˆ«
19 Phoenix37 2011â—† 215 30% 12% 11% 9% 9% 10% 15% âˆ« 2834 âˆ«
5 SodaPop 2948â—† 215 28% 12% 19% 13% 12% 4% 9% âˆ« 2912 âˆ«
15 uukrul 2115â—† 215 26% 19% 19% 9% 12% 9% 3% âˆ« 3641 âˆ«
24 DiceLord 1551â—† 215 24% 22% 14% 15% 10% 10% 2% âˆ« 3738 âˆ«
18 Vermont 2031â—† 215 27% 19% 19% 9% 6% 8% 8% âˆ« 3762 âˆ«
6 kissygirl 2794â—† 215 20% 25% 17% 14% 8% 7% 7% âˆ« 3766 âˆ«
21 Grisu 1916â—† 215 23% 25% 16% 5% 8% 8% 11% âˆ« 4452 âˆ«

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(cont.)

from less than 1% correlations. In which case, I don't mind. Have fun!

azala:

I anticipated all these objections in my initial post, which you should have read before jumping in and making an ass of yourself. First line, third paragraph: "the number of helpers may be less or more than six". Which means that the number under discussion was six, not one or two. Which meant that everyone was in on the pga.

What skews the results is not the number of helpers, but the extend to which other players have some other aim in life than to be a helper of player J. Let us change the assumptions a bit. Suppose the typical helper of J plays half of his games as a helper of J and in the other half he plays his normal game. Then his profile would be a 50-50 weighted average of the modulus of J and the profile when he plays his ordinary game. The TASMs of the helpers of J would tend to be lower than the TASMs of players who play their ordinary game 100% of the time. To do a split-TASM test, select a profile that is representative of the population from which the J-helpers might be drawn. Probably the best available own-game profile for this purpose would be the average of the top 24 (excluding J). The results would be unaffected by how often a particular J-helper helps J (as long as the J games and non-J games are 50-50), except that profiles with fewer games tend to be lumpier.

A good strategy for Player J would be to flag when he is first to two other players. That way he can reward two of his helpers at once. He doesn't get as many points for third per game as he would for second, but he is likely to get better help. He can make up his lower score per game by playing more games.

skrumgaer:

Watch your language.

Do whatever you want with the model - if your purpose is to spot PGA'ers and make serious accusations against people, you'd better be prepared to defend your model against criticism in a more civil fashion.

I guess you must be referring to my having used the word "actuarian" (which is non-standard) as opposed to "actuary" or "actuarial". I will be more careful in the future so you can save some face.

If you assume I give up first half the time I earn it, and flag for 2nd, I am giving up 23 points per game (I mostly play at the 10 tables).

So out of 226 games thats 33.9 times I have given up 23 points which totals to 779.7 points. That would put me at 2805.7 points which currently would be rank 11

This is not far off from my last month's ranking and would be nothing out of the ordinary. To think I have a huge crew of PGA is kind of silly.
If I had that kind of help I'd have a shot at #1 which would make more sense to go for.

Note - The last game we played together, You were my only "PGA" at the table.
You got 1st and I got 2nd.

>> The ultimate winner can be an involuntary participant--a pleasantly surprised post-flag recipient.

This is usually the case, I never call out that I am flagging for 2nd, think about it, if you did that people would think you were full of crap and crush you for being an ass.

OH SNAP. ^^^^ Jumblies just said SKRUM was part of the player J cabal

BUSTED!
Somebody post a thread examining Skrums stats!

SHAME on you SKRUM! *wags ruler at Skrum

I confess! I was a commensal PGA! I knew what BJ's strategy was going to be and took advantage of it. At the start of the game I suggested we all flag at once when we could to sabotage Player J's plan not to have any wins, but according to CoMik, Player J already has a win. It just doesn't show up in the profile because it's less than one percent. Player J needs to be stiffed with two more wins.

To BJ:

If you are not going for #1, what are you going for?

Actually, the win percentage has to be under .01% to not show up, which isn't right! because anything under .499% should be 0%! BTW CoMik's statement is wrong.

whose aug is this?

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