open invitation to anyone of course; gauntlet; I see you are on as well :P

gnite; boogy; gauntlet :p

the difference i would note between ron paul and the entire rest of the republican field thus far, deadcode, is that ron paul is a complete outlier as far as the values of registered republicans go.

what i'm suggesting is that more registered republicans agree with the standard gop candidate policies (of which romney is an advocate) than they do with ron paul's unique libertarian, anti-federalist, isolationist policies.

this is most readily apparent among the republican elite whom you can argue really pull the strings here. those top 1 percent that can afford to donate 50 thousand dollars to campaigns and such on behalf of their entire families and extended families as well are the types of republicans that are not going to really give a shit about ron paul - theyre also the types of republicans that ultimately decide who gets the nomination.

so in summation people that like ron paul or may change their minds to ron paul are not the same people who like perry, santorum, romney, newt, cain, or bachmann.

there isn't much overlap between ron paul's views and those of the latter group and consequently you will see more voters flock to romney as the pool of candidates dwindles and as the other candidates prove themselves to be unelectable or run poor campaigns (newt for example).

dont get it wrong though, they definitely don't want romney... they just have no choice.

http://blogs.indiewire.com/carynjames/75f4cf40-36ee-11e1-97b6-123138165f92

quick video articulating some of my points

2012paul:2012romney::2008obama:2008clinton

ppl up top with big $$$ love Romney, but Paul will secure the masses' $$ in tons of small donations (I think he calls them money bombs)

I don't have a source and I'm too lazy to search for it, but I was watching MSNBC while they were counting the Iowa caucus votes, and they did some analysis of the entrance and exit polls that illustrate what Veta said extremely well.

The question they were analyzing was when the voters decided who they wanted to vote for. Almost all the RP supports had decided >2 weeks before election day and a very tiny fraction decided on the day of or in the last 72 hrs (around 0.2%). In contrast Romney had picked up around 2-4% of his voters at 24hrs and 72 hrs while Santorum had picked up around 7-8% in the last 24 hrs which makes sense given the momentum he had leading in to that primary.

The point being that Ron Paul supporters are very ardent but there is almost no broad appeal to establishment republicans, and they will not vote for RP because he is too polarizing on too many very important issues to most republican voters. I would wager that most republicans who are still undecided would go towards Romney because even though he's a repugnant RINO with no spine, he's at least more likely to get Obama out of the white house than Ron Paul.

>States have the power to control sexual behavior

No they don't. They have the power to control to regulate the transmission of sexually transmitted diseases, self infliction of harm (alocol consumption, dueling), harm of others (carrying concealed weapons), murder (abortion, carrying concealed weapons), etc.

You made analogies, and they were flawed.

I certainly familiar with your line of thinking Veta / Matt. I've considered those arguments; I agree with some of what was said; and disagree with a few things as well.

First off, RP is not an isolationist. Let's just get that out of the way. Isolationist is like Japan in 1625. RP is non-interventionist. Meaning we don't look at every squabble around with the world; and go "hmm I wonder if I send some CIA in can I influence this to my advantage." or "Hmmm let's go bomb Iran because they are threatening their neighbors." or "Hey let's overthrow that democratically elected leader because we don't agree with him". Almost everything else will be the same; we would talk to people; trade with everyone; open travel and communication with Cuba; etc.

Many used to say that pulling out of Vietnam would result in complete communist take over from China and further wars. We ended pulling out; did these terrible things happen? Nope. Vietnam ended up being a friendly country with us; and a trading partner. China has moved towards capitalism. The world is fine without us sticking our nose in everyone's business. We should lead by example.

Okay now on to the business of the nomination.

Here is how I see it. Sure you can say that Romney is basically the candidate of last resort; however I believe you are under-estimating just how much the republican base despises him.

Let's look at the entrance/exit polls from Iowa.

When voters are sliced by age here are the results:

http://i39.tinypic.com/2pt18cj.png

RP receives almost 50% of the votes of 17-29 and 40% of the votes of 30-39. This is huge because of two things. A. These voters are very often NEW voters or DEM deserters. This is a variable that GOP strategists are not capable of predicting. And if you go back and history to elections where a candidate was able to do this; you almost always have a volatile where a surprise winner emerges. Almost exactly similar to Obama.

Another interesting suggestion; most modern polls are done using land-line calls. Who is most likely to NOT have a land-line? The same age group that RP wins at a 50% rate. Therefore most pollsters agree that RP is almost always being under-counted in polls. This was proven by the Iowa results where is captured more of the vote then most polls expected him too (look at percentage; not placement position).

Ok; where do all the other age groups vote? Well 40-64 go for Santorum and 65+ go to Romney. Why is Santorum getting votes? Well obviously for social issues. In other words; religious voters who want a candidate that matches their values. Well what happens when Santorum runs out of money and has to go home? I'd bet that they go for the Christian Doctor who has delivered over 4000 babies and doesn't tell lies; over the millionaire flip-flopping Mormon banker. But we will have to wait and see.

Okay; let's have a look at Votes by Party ID.

http://i39.tinypic.com/2dhbuqv.png

As you can see; RP wins the independents by a landslide. Funny how almost ever single election before today, independents were always the rage. Well no one is talking about them today; wonder why. Trust me independents are still hugely important.

And guess who wins the Republican vote? Santorum! Same argument as above; where do you think they go; when he runs out of money.

Let's move on to Most Important Candidate Quality. Basically they asked; what is the most important quality you need in a candidate to support him; and who has that quality.

http://i40.tinypic.com/oszg9l.png

RP wins the "True Conservative". Santorum wins "Strong moral character" lol! We all know what is going to happen now that Santorum has finally risen to the top tire. His record will come under scrutiny. Suddenly his moral character will have to stand up to the fact that he is actually one of the most corrupt.

Where do you think these voters go; when they lose their MORAL candidate? RP duh.

Let's look at the analysis of campaign ads.

Okay now on to the business of the nomination.

Here is how I see it. Sure you can say that Romney is basically the candidate of last resort; however I believe you are under-estimating just how much the republican base despises him.

Let's look at the entrance/exit polls from Iowa.

When voters are sliced by age here are the results:

http://i39.tinypic.com/2pt18cj.png

RP receives almost 50% of the votes of 17-29 and 40% of the votes of 30-39. This is huge because of two things. A. These voters are very often NEW voters or DEM deserters. This is a variable that GOP strategists are not capable of predicting. And if you go back and history to elections where a candidate was able to do this; you almost always have a volatile where a surprise winner emerges. Almost exactly similar to Obama.

Another interesting suggestion; most modern polls are done using land-line calls. Who is most likely to NOT have a land-line? The same age group that RP wins at a 50% rate. Therefore most pollsters agree that RP is almost always being under-counted in polls. This was proven by the Iowa results where is captured more of the vote then most polls expected him too (look at percentage; not placement position).

Ok; where do all the other age groups vote? Well 40-64 go for Santorum and 65+ go to Romney. Why is Santorum getting votes? Well obviously for social issues. In other words; religious voters who want a candidate that matches their values. Well what happens when Santorum runs out of money and has to go home? I'd bet that they go for the Christian Doctor who has delivered over 4000 babies and doesn't tell lies; over the millionaire flip-flopping Mormon banker. But we will have to wait and see.

Okay; let's have a look at Votes by Party ID.

http://i39.tinypic.com/2dhbuqv.png

As you can see; RP wins the independents by a landslide. Funny how almost ever single election before today, independents were always the rage. Well no one is talking about them today; wonder why. Trust me independents are still hugely important.

And guess who wins the Republican vote? Santorum! Same argument as above; where do you think they go; when he runs out of money.

Let's move on to Most Important Candidate Quality. Basically they asked; what is the most important quality you need in a candidate to support him; and who has that quality.

http://i40.tinypic.com/oszg9l.png

Let's look at campaign ads.
http://i39.tinypic.com/21kif0n.png

It's speculation; but it is interesting to note that campaign ads influenced people to vote Santorum and Romney. Exactly who RP hasn't started attacking yet. It should be noted; that strategists and even the candidates themselves have remarked about how much more effective RP's ads have been. Well let's see if they can weather the storm that is about to come their way.

This one is almost self-explanatory.
http://i42.tinypic.com/1zgq6x0.png

RP does very well in the Budget Deficit and Economy issues; which are the most important issues this cycle. People will have to consider between Romney and RP on this issue. Trustworthiness will be the thing that pushes them off the fence. Can you actually trust Romney?

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ia

Matt; I'm pretty sure that all that statistic shows is that Santorum support is weak because his voters only choose him at the last second. While most of RP voters are unshakable and made their decision up a long time ago.

I'm unsure how you spin that into a disadvantage for RP. Certainly any candidate in the race would trade for RP's position in that poll.

Btw; Just because the majority of voters for RP made up their decision early; doesn't mean that he isn't constantly adding new voters. That same poll; shows that clearly by RP still having percentages of people in the <2week category. So basically RP has a very unshakable base; and he is slowly adding to that base. This is a good position to be in. This is a long race; and the turtle is a good bet.

Btw; watch this town hall he gave the other day in New Hampshire and tell me he isn't going to be increasing his support. You will see why he is so strong with Independents; and you will also see why Santorum voters will move his way once they see who Santorum really is.

http://usaguns.net/patriots/rpnh.php