Straw polls are pretty worthless. Example.. Bachmann won the Iowa straw poll.

Sam, I have a different view of how a Paul vs Obama election would go down. Paul would win the republican votes because none of them would win vs Obama; and I think he would take a sliver of the liberal voters as well.

The Democrats base is slightly smaller then the republicans base. This is why the best Democrats normally require a big turnout from their base and a bad turnout from GOP base (Obama vs McCain).

If both sides have a big turnout then the GOP wins (Kerry vs Bush).

This being said; I think Obama has almost zero chance of getting a big turnout in this election; and combined with Paul carrying the GOP and stealing some liberals; it would be very difficult for Obama to defeat Paul.

Anyway; that's how I see it.

And the Jewish vote may mean a lot for my 1-2 square mile district; but that doesn't translate into a national election. Democrats always win the majority of the Jewish vote; and it hasn't won them all the elections.

If it was just platform versus platform I could see Ron Paul winning, but this isn't the 1800s and much more matters just besides what the issues are.

Ron Paul doesn't look Presidential, he doesn't have charm or charisma, these things matter in National elections. Also the narrative of the austerity under President Paul would be a significant hurdle for him to overcome. Also the Israel issue would be huge, no matter how minor you think it is much of the Republican base and the Jews cares about support for Israel. Ron Paul would allow Obama to make this weakness a strength. Hyperbole aside the Jews do have massive influence in the media, don't think that wouldn't be a boon for Obama against Paul.

I agree with most of your points. I well I guess we will have to wait and see what happens.

-I

If you don't think Obama is going to have a heavy turnout, then you don't know minorities very well.

All those poors sure aren't going to let you stop Obama from paying their mortgage, I mean some of them even have microwaves and can still afford enough food to stay alive until election day. I know the Repubs are doing their best to starve all the poors to death before they can vote but those poors are a hearty bunch.

Lol dead has the political analysis skills of a sophomore in high school