it does look like *

meh, I give up: in my original post, I wanted to say that about 50M of 8v8 s should have been rolled by now, (that's the estimation we ended up before if I remember correctly)

Jurgen: Ever notice that almost all the counts are over 40 million? For example my account number is 44839821 and I joined in October 2008. I looked at someone else's stats since I haven't played much this month. He played a game a 9:36 then another at 9:54. The games were numbered 42,353,332 and 42,353,674. Did 342 games happen in 18 minutes? I think not. I think that IF the counter is actually counting games, it includes not only kdice games, but hands in gpokr and turns on xsketch, so it is not a reliable number. ALSO, I don't doubt that it may have been reset at some point or have skipped numbers for whatever reason. Perhaps things get screwed up in the game numbering when Ryan resets an account just like place percentage stats getting messed up.

anyway.

Average game time for any one person is probably about 5 minutes, assuming that person is just playing for fun and does not play 2k/5k all the time. I'd bump it to 8 if that person plays a lot of 500s. I think monte's numbers are closer to reality than kreuz's in terms of number of games played ever, but I'll say a new game starts ever 1.5 minutes.

In a single game, I'd guesstimate 75 8 stacks being rolled, either in 8v8 or pre-8v8 play. In any one tournament, about 100 games are played (total for all the players), and in each of those 100 games there would probably be 8ish 8s rolled? per person. This number is low because that would be 56 8s rolled in an average 7-person game, but heads up doesn't always reach 8v8s. There are 7.5 tourneys in a day (some days have 7, some have 8). Let's call it 8 to keep this as an overestimate.

So, keeping in mind that the site is down 12 hours for every month:
5 years 365 days times 24 hours times 60 minutes divided by a new game every 2 minutes = 1 752 000 games played so far.
1 752 000 games * 75 8s rolled in a game = 131 400 000 8-stacks rolled.
8 tournaments per day * 365 days * 2.5 years * 100 person-games * 8 rolls per game per person = 5 840 000 8-stacks rolled.

our total is about 140 million (again, trying to keep this as an overestimate so I rounded up).
(1/6)^8*140000000=83.
(1/6)^16*140000000=4.96258581 × 10^-5 8 to 8 or 48 to 48 ties.

yes Chloe, I don't think the game ID will give a useful estimate

I mainly wonder how this number evolves. You might be right in assuming xsketch and gpokr games are joined together

It's not a perfect roll but I got this last 4th of July:

Cees defended 8v2, 12 to 12, (1,3,2,1,1,1,1,2 to 6,6)

for what it's worth, last week I rolled:

CuteKittens defeated 8v8, 23 to 9, (2,5,2,4,1,1,5,3 to 1,1,2,1,1,1,1,1)

9 is the worst i have ever seen, we should dedicate this threat to the discovery of an 8 or 48

So if I understood that right, you estimated 83 times an 8 has been rolled.

Mine is probably among the worst:

Louis Cypher's turn
Swingkid defended 8v3, 8 to 10, (1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 to 6,1,3)
Thursday July 23, 2009 CDT


It affirms my impression of having an extremly shitty account that I am among the total of 83 candidates to have the shittiest roll ever.

I would be much more satisfied if I had one rolling 48 as well - I think 8:8 48:47 would be the best win EVER... I'd go fucking mad if I had done the 47 in that szenario...