i rolled an 8 once

people have been rolling millions of not billions of dicerolls over the last almost 5 years. it would be safe to assume that every combination of rolls has been rolled.

quick overestimate:

5 years
365x24x60 minutes per year
new game every 2 minutes
25 8v8s per game = 50 8stack rolls per game

total = ~66 million

so billions might be a stretch, unless im missing something by a factor of 15. and i think im overestimating? thoughts?

(1/6)^8 * 66million = 39

so we should expect an 8 to be rolled 39 times by now, as well as 48. which makes me think im overestimating the total number of 8stack rolls. cus so far i can only think of one 8 (fieros 'cursed' roll), and just a couple 48s. but take into account that a lot of these are missed because the average kdicer doesnt post in forums, and a lot of times people dont even look at the numbers they roll, just whether they win/lose.

yes, that 'cursed' reference was a jab at kreuz ;)

you are underestimating the number of 8 stacks rolled, i think

at least if you concider 8vX, and 5v8s.

I would guess like 75-100, and also there are all the tourneys.

I also think that a game on average takes 15-20 min, and there are almost always more than 10 games running.

if you say game on average take 20 min, then there should only be 10 games running at any given point, which is waaay to low.

maybe like game starts every 1-1.2 min.

worst case from ^^, you are off by a factor of 4

and if you add all the tourneys, you might be off by a factor of 5.


or, even my numbers might be to low

also, I am pretty sure I have rolled 48 once or twice in 07-08.

but can you really be sure that you have not rolled an 8, and missed it?

and really, how high % of the games are the people that are posting in the forums playing? probably less than 1 % of all games

I'd notice an 8 if I rolled it. Hell, if I roll less than 14 or more than 39 I mention in the chatbox almost every time.

I think a better case study for rareness would be an 8v8 tie at 8 to 8 (all 16 1s)
or 8v8 tie 48 to 48 (all 6s).

I would bet neither of those has happened before, and those odds are obviously astronomical.

check the current game IDs, the counter is well over 42 million by now.

I don't know since when that counter is running and I don't know for sure if there are any gaps of a few million somewhere. Only ryan can help out there.

roughly speaking, I would say Monte's approximation was good and about 50 M games should have been played by now

Mr K raises a good point about tournies and 8vx rolls too but I don't think those combined will double the estimation. 8v8 does have two rolls with 8 dice though so that doubles the number of 8stacks rolled.

Sometimes people post screencaps of their last 10 games in the forum. If someone can dig up one of those from a few months ago, we could do a pretty good guess of games/day (if we assume kdice activity stayed stable over that period).

hmmm, so monte ends up with 1,3M of total games which is much less than what I guessed it was

if you assume there are 20 tables active on avg and each takes about 20 mins, you could go to 1 game starts every minute but that still only yields 2,6M games played

it does like the good order of magnitude though