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Statistical Analysis of 'Cursed' accounts
fcuku wrote
at 7:12 PM, Wednesday December 8, 2010 EST
fuck you muthafucka


























ok but really, after 10 games and 355 rolls, my average dice roll that was calculated was 3.0124. now a question for you statistics people: is this so far off from the statistical norm that tampering could be involved in some way shape or form?

and for you people with similarly unlucky accounts, did you get similar results?

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jurgen wrote
at 8:44 AM, Thursday December 9, 2010 EST
rolling 3 on average (instead of 3,5) can be achieved exactly by converting 1/3 of your 6 and 5 rolls into a 1
jurgen wrote
at 8:46 AM, Thursday December 9, 2010 EST
I hope Ryan gets on there once so Thraxle can remind him of my mod request :P
jurgen wrote
at 9:43 AM, Thursday December 9, 2010 EST
I just did my own career luck% as (each months luck% multiplied by #games that month)/#career games

with the data we have at our disposal, I think that's the best way to calculate that. Obviously I only took the months starting from where luck% were recorded in the profile.

So I end up with an average of 48,8% over 2358 games, it seems on the low side of the curve

I was gonna do a few other people to compare but I estimate it takes about 2 minutes/profile to do the calculation manually

I'll do a few later but if there are any volunteers to also do a few at random, that would be great

I mainly want to compare luck% with at least 1000 games combined
Thraxle wrote
at 9:52 AM, Thursday December 9, 2010 EST
49.1% over the course of my career. I didn't weight it based on number of games in the month, however. I just didn't use any month with less than 30 games.
greekboi wrote
at 9:55 AM, Thursday December 9, 2010 EST
do you multiply average month % x average # of games per month

or do you do each month individually then add them all up?
Thraxle wrote
at 9:58 AM, Thursday December 9, 2010 EST
If I do it weighted by # of games each month it still comes out to 49.1%.
jurgen wrote
at 10:25 AM, Thursday December 9, 2010 EST
let's say you only played 3 months then you have to do:

(luck% month 1 X #games in month 1) + (luck% month 2 X #games in month 2) + (luck% month 3 X #games in month 3)

divide that number by # games combined of the 3 months and you get your best estimate I think

you can keep the months with less than 30 games since they will only contribute very little to the avg of say 1000 games combined

I will see if I can make an excell sheet where you just have to paste your stats in to get the career luck%
jurgen wrote
at 10:47 AM, Thursday December 9, 2010 EST
made the excel sheet

greekboi has 49,2% career luck on 6675 games played
jurgen wrote
at 11:17 AM, Thursday December 9, 2010 EST
did a few at random (I was assuming that there were no reasons to curse vermont chloe or skrum)

player / career luck % / # games
skrumgaer 49,31 4638
superxchloe 49,22 1674
greekboi 49,18 6675
Thraxle 49,13 4000
Vermont 48,91 2506
jurgen 48,80 2358

superxchloe wrote
at 11:54 AM, Thursday December 9, 2010 EST
I'll work with whatever account the mods and account owners are willing to let me use :) That being said, I am essentially done with finals in a week or so then I'll have a whole week to do stats and research before my family vacation (during which I will be forced to eat enormous amounts of food and talk to a shit ton of relatives I didn't know I had and thus will have no free time).
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