sort of, but somehow you have different odds compared to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kdice#Dice_Roll_Probabilities

do yours take into account that the defender wins in case of a tie?

anyway, basically this calculator should just multiply all the odds of winning each roll of the 1hit/connect

so a succesful 3v4 (odds 19,2%) + 2v2 (44,4%) connect has a combined chance of working of 0,192*0,444 or 8,5%

There can only be 3 opportunities why my odds are different.

1. The coder of KDice manipulated the odds
2. Wikipedia is wrong
3. I am wrong

But i'm pretty sure that i'm right, an example: wikipedia says that the odds for a 2 vs. 1 are 83.8%, mine says 77.27%, because there are 66 possible ways how the game ends, in 51 ways, the attacker wins, in 15 ways the defender wins.

And here they are: (i made that with a program i wrote in 5min, so i did'nt sit there some hours to write that^^)

Possible way 1: attacker rolls: 2 defender rolls: 1 (attacker wins 1:0)
Possible way 2: attacker rolls: 3 defender rolls: 1 (attacker wins 2:0)
Possible way 3: attacker rolls: 4 defender rolls: 1 (attacker wins 3:0)
Possible way 4: attacker rolls: 5 defender rolls: 1 (attacker wins 4:0)
Possible way 5: attacker rolls: 6 defender rolls: 1 (attacker wins 5:0)
Possible way 6: attacker rolls: 7 defender rolls: 1 (attacker wins 6:0)
Possible way 7: attacker rolls: 8 defender rolls: 1 (attacker wins 7:0)
Possible way 8: attacker rolls: 9 defender rolls: 1 (attacker wins 8:0)
Possible way 9: attacker rolls: 10 defender rolls: 1 (attacker wins 9:0)
Possible way 10: attacker rolls: 11 defender rolls: 1 (attacker wins 10:0)
Possible way 11: attacker rolls: 12 defender rolls: 1 (attacker wins 11:0)
Possible way 12: attacker rolls: 2 defender rolls: 2 (defender wins 11:1)
Possible way 13: attacker rolls: 3 defender rolls: 2 (attacker wins 12:1)
Possible way 14: attacker rolls: 4 defender rolls: 2 (attacker wins 13:1)
Possible way 15: attacker rolls: 5 defender rolls: 2 (attacker wins 14:1)
Possible way 16: attacker rolls: 6 defender rolls: 2 (attacker wins 15:1)
Possible way 17: attacker rolls: 7 defender rolls: 2 (attacker wins 16:1)
Possible way 18: attacker rolls: 8 defender rolls: 2 (attacker wins 17:1)
Possible way 19: attacker rolls: 9 defender rolls: 2 (attacker wins 18:1)
Possible way 20: attacker rolls: 10 defender rolls: 2 (attacker wins 19:1)
Possible way 21: attacker rolls: 11 defender rolls: 2 (attacker wins 20:1)
Possible way 22: attacker rolls: 12 defender rolls: 2 (attacker wins 21:1)
Possible way 23: attacker rolls: 2 defender rolls: 3 (defender wins 21:2)
Possible way 24: attacker rolls: 3 defender rolls: 3 (defender wins 21:3)
Possible way 25: attacker rolls: 4 defender rolls: 3 (attacker wins 22:3)
Possible way 26: attacker rolls: 5 defender rolls: 3 (attacker wins 23:3)
Possible way 27: attacker rolls: 6 defender rolls: 3 (attacker wins 24:3)
Possible way 28: attacker rolls: 7 defender rolls: 3 (attacker wins 25:3)
Possible way 29: attacker rolls: 8 defender rolls: 3 (attacker wins 26:3)
Possible way 30: attacker rolls: 9 defender rolls: 3 (attacker wins 27:3)
Possible way 31: attacker rolls: 10 defender rolls: 3 (attacker wins 28:3)
Possible way 32: attacker rolls: 11 defender rolls: 3 (attacker wins 29:3)
Possible way 33: attacker rolls: 12 defender rolls: 3 (attacker wins 30:3)
Possible way 34: attacker rolls: 2 defender rolls: 4 (defender wins 30:4)
Possible way 35: attacker rolls: 3 defender rolls: 4 (defender wins 30:5)
Possible way 36: attacker rolls: 4 defender rolls: 4 (defender wins 30:6)
Possible way 37: attacker rolls: 5 defender rolls: 4 (attacker wins 31:6)
Possible way 38: attacker rolls: 6 defender rolls: 4 (attacker wins 32:6)
Possible way 39: attacker rolls: 7 defender rolls: 4 (attacker wins 33:6)
Possible way 40: attacker rolls: 8 defender rolls: 4 (attacker wins 34:6)
Possible way 41: attacker rolls: 9 defender rolls: 4 (attacker wins 35:6)
Possible way 42: attacker rolls: 10 defender rolls: 4 (attacker wins 36:6)
Possible way 43: attacker rolls: 11 defender rolls: 4 (attacker wins 37:6)
Possible way 44: attacker rolls: 12 defender rolls: 4 (attacker wins 38:6)
Possible way 45: attacker rolls: 2 defender rolls: 5 (defender wins 38:7)
Possible way 46: attacker rolls: 3 defender rolls: 5 (defender wins 38:8)
Possible way 47: attacker rolls: 4 defender rolls: 5 (defender wins 38:9)
Possible way 48: attacker rolls: 5 defender rolls: 5 (defender wins 38:10)
Possible way 49: attacker rolls: 6 defender rolls: 5 (attacker wins 39:10)
Possible way 50: attacker rolls: 7 defender rolls: 5 (attacker wins 40:10)
Possible way 51: attacker rolls: 8 defender rolls: 5 (attacker wins 41:10)
Possible way 52: attacker rolls: 9 defender rolls: 5 (attacker wins 42:10)
Possible way 53: attacker rolls: 10 defender rolls: 5 (attacker wins 43:10)
Possible way 54: attacker rolls: 11 defender rolls: 5 (attacker wins 44:10)
Possible way 55: attacker rolls: 12 defender rolls: 5 (attacker wins 45:10)
Possible way 56: attacker rolls: 2 defender rolls: 6 (defender wins 45:11)
Possible way 57: attacker rolls: 3 defender rolls: 6 (defender wins 45:12)
Possible way 58: attacker rolls: 4 defender rolls: 6 (defender wins 45:13)
Possible way 59: attacker rolls: 5 defender rolls: 6 (defender wins 45:14)
Possible way 60: attacker rolls: 6 defender rolls: 6 (defender wins 45:15)
Possible way 61: attacker rolls: 7 defender rolls: 6 (attacker wins 46:15)
Possible way 62: attacker rolls: 8 defender rolls: 6 (attacker wins 47:15)
Possible way 63: attacker rolls: 9 defender rolls: 6 (attacker wins 48:15)
Possible way 64: attacker rolls: 10 defender rolls: 6 (attacker wins 49:15)
Possible way 65: attacker rolls: 11 defender rolls: 6 (attacker wins 50:15)
Possible way 66: attacker rolls: 12 defender rolls: 6 (attacker wins 51:15)

That means 51*100/66 = 77.272727% that the attacker wins.


Or i'm wrong? oO

sorry, you are wrong, wiki is right

let's look at the 2v1 case and seperate the problem into 6 situations. your 1 dice can roll from a 1 to a 6, each with 1/6 or 16,6666% odds.

when the 1stack rolls a 1, you always lose against the 2 minimum that 2 dice roll so in 16,6666% of your cases you have 100% odds of winning the 2v1

when the 1 dice rolls a 2, there is only one out of the 36 combinations which 2 dice can roll (1+1 =2) where 2=2 so the defending 1 stack wins. So in 1/6 of the cases, you have 1/36 or 2,7778% chance of losing with your 2stack or 97,22222% chance of winning 2v1


when the 1 dice rolls a 3, there are only 3 out of the 36 combinations which 2 dice can roll (1+2 or 2+1 = 3 and 1+1=2) where the defending 1 stack wins. So in 1/6 of the cases, you have 3/36 or 8,3333% chance of losing with your 2stack or 91,6667% chance of winning 2v1

when rolling a 4 with the 1 stack, 6/36 have a 2dice result of 4 or lower (1,1 or 1,2 or 2,1 or 2,2 or 3,1 or 1,3) and so 83,3333% chance of succes

72,222% succes when the 1stack rolls a 5 (10/36)

58,3333% success when the 1stack rolls a 6 (15/36)

again, rolling 1-6 with the 1 stack have same odds of happening so if you average the 6 success rates: (100+97,222+91,667+83,333+72,2222+58,3333)/6, you end up with (drumm rolls)



83,7963 % succes rate of a 2v1 winning

Schwabba, thx for wasting 14 minutes of my life

Mustang, you asked earlier what I do when I get bored....this is what I do

by the way, you error lies in the fact that your approach doesnt take into account that you have 6 ways to roll a 7 with 2 dice; 5 ways to roll a 6 or 8; 4 ways to roll 5 or 9, etc

grrr, you cost me 3 more minutes

Ah, i understand.. damn it!

Bump... not working anymore?

aww did u take it down :(

yup, I never saw him back since I found out it didn't work anymore :(

that thing needs to be kakku`ed back to life

does anybody still have that thing?