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stats: % luck
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hotchicka wrote
at 11:46 AM, Saturday September 12, 2009 EDT
How can it be that i never ever had one moth my luck touched 50%
can anybody explain? this sucks so much! |
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hotchicka wrote
at 2:51 AM, Sunday September 13, 2009 EDT I just wonder why i never touched the 50%.
Is it really random?!? |
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Louis Cypher wrote
at 4:47 AM, Monday September 14, 2009 EDT Whom would an edit-button fuck after all? I don't understand the request....
Other than that - I think I had only 1 month in more than 2 years that was exactly 50% (this month is unrealistically lucky so far, I should stop playing... 50.4%!). So you could discuss the way of calculating luck or where to place the 0-line. If you defined average as 49% you were doing quite fine (me too I think). If it was at 50% we both sucked. As a matter of fact we don't know how luck is determined and thus we can't discuss. After all, it is pretty much the same for everybody, so why worry. |
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hotchicka wrote
at 11:51 AM, Monday September 14, 2009 EDT anybody with a reasonable answer?
is kdice really random? |
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montecarlo wrote
at 12:40 PM, Monday September 14, 2009 EDT hey hotchicka, this has definitely been discussed before, and i might be wrong, but i believe the answer is that the luck % average is computed with every game bearing equal weight, which is wrong.
for example: game 1: 3 rolls, all terrible, 1.1% luck. game 2: 497 rolls, 50.3% luck. the way that kdice computes it (weighting by game), your luck for the month would be 25.7%, whereas if you weighted it by roll, you'd get 50%. basically, if you lose a couple terribly unlucky rolls in round 1, you will flag or die very quickly with a bad luck, which is fine. but, if you win a couple amazing rolls in round 1, there is no way in hell that you flag just so you can post in the forums and say check this shit out, ive got a 98% luck game. if you are trying to win the games, the best luck percentages you will get are AT MOST in the 60's, because in order to win, you make a lot of rolls, and law of averages will play a greater role. hope that makes sense. im guessing it must be sort of hard to implement a roll-based-weighting to the luck factor instead of a game-based-weighting, or else Ryan wouldve changed the system several months ago when this issue was first discussed. |