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Color statistics finally in
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NoTruces wrote
at 4:45 PM, Monday August 31, 2009 EDT
I have finally finished off the long anticipated color win percentage tabulation. Calculated from the last 100 games I was in, tracking where each players color finished, and awarding placement weightings accordingly (7 points for 1st... 1 point for 7th), here are the results:
Purple: 547 points Red: 411 points Teal (or whatever): 406 points Green: 397 points Brown: 389 points Blue: 353 point Yellow: 297 points So from the sample set, purple clearly wins more often and yellow loses more often. 100 samples is lots enough to say we have an issue in the dice distribution algorithm. |
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skrumgaer wrote
at 2:31 PM, Tuesday September 1, 2009 EDT Variability - Ungrouped Data
Absolute range 250 Relative range (unbiased) 3.28672451625402 Relative range (biased) 3.55006822282372 Variance (unbiased) 5785.66666666667 Variance (biased) 4959.14285714286 Standard Deviation (unbiased) 76.063569904828 Standard Deviation (biased) 70.4211818783444 Coefficient of Variation (unbiased) 0.190158924762070 Coefficient of Variation (biased) 0.176052954695861 Mean Squared Error (MSE versus 0) 164959.142857143 Mean Squared Error (MSE versus Mean) 4959.14285714286 Mean Absolute Deviation from Mean (MAD Mean) 46.8571428571429 Mean Absolute Deviation from Median (MAD Median) 46.4285714285714 Median Absolute Deviation from Mean 11 Median Absolute Deviation from Median 14 Mean Squared Deviation from Mean 4959.14285714286 Mean Squared Deviation from Median 4968.14285714286 Interquartile Difference (Weighted Average at Xnp) 68.25 Interquartile Difference (Weighted Average at X(n+1)p) 58 Interquartile Difference (Empirical Distribution Function) 58 Interquartile Difference (Empirical Distribution Function - Averaging) 58 Interquartile Difference (Empirical Distribution Function - Interpolation) 37.5 Interquartile Difference (Closest Observation) 53 Interquartile Difference (True Basic - Statistics Graphics Toolkit) 58 Interquartile Difference (MS Excel (old versions)) 58 Semi Interquartile Difference (Weighted Average at Xnp) 34.125 Semi Interquartile Difference (Weighted Average at X(n+1)p) 29 Semi Interquartile Difference (Empirical Distribution Function) 29 Semi Interquartile Difference (Empirical Distribution Function - Averaging) 29 Semi Interquartile Difference (Empirical Distribution Function - Interpolation) 18.75 Semi Interquartile Difference (Closest Observation) 26.5 Semi Interquartile Difference (True Basic - Statistics Graphics Toolkit) 29 Semi Interquartile Difference (MS Excel (old versions)) 29 Coefficient of Quartile Variation (Weighted Average at Xnp) 0.0914572864321608 Coefficient of Quartile Variation (Weighted Average at X(n+1)p) 0.0759162303664921 Coefficient of Quartile Variation (Empirical Distribution Function) 0.0759162303664921 Coefficient of Quartile Variation (Empirical Distribution Function - Averaging) 0.0759162303664921 Coefficient of Quartile Variation (Empirical Distribution Function - Interpolation) 0.0481077613855035 Coefficient of Quartile Variation (Closest Observation) 0.069828722002635 Coefficient of Quartile Variation (True Basic - Statistics Graphics Toolkit) 0.0759162303664921 Coefficient of Quartile Variation (MS Excel (old versions)) 0.0759162303664921 Number of all Pairs of Observations 21 Squared Differences between all Pairs of Observations 11571.3333333333 Mean Absolute Differences between all Pairs of Observations 84.0952380952381 Gini Mean Difference 84.0952380952381 Leik Measure of Dispersion 0.57797619047619 Index of Diversity 0.852715051020408 Index of Qualitative Variation 0.994834226190476 Coefficient of Dispersion 0.118028067650234 Observations 7 |
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Gurgi wrote
at 2:55 PM, Tuesday September 1, 2009 EDT "as the statistics clearly announce." lolz...yea clearly
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Thraxle wrote
at 3:10 PM, Tuesday September 1, 2009 EDT I feel like a fucking idiot anytime I try to think on the same mathematical level as skrum...
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Thraxle wrote
at 3:17 PM, Tuesday September 1, 2009 EDT Here is something to think about while you guys fawn over your numbers.
Perhaps a mathematical distribution has nothing to do with the statistics. Perhaps there are other factors at play here. Purple is a darker color than yellow and may seem more imposing than other colors. Yellow is a lighter color which may be inviting to the eyes for an attack. Also, there are certain players on the site who prefer to play certain colors. Nexon likes to sit purp. Shad likes to sit red/green/purp. I almost never sit yellow and prefer blue/purp/green. Mad Willy on plays red. Ms. Cat only plays teal. (etc. etc.) If yellow is generally disliked enough, good players may tend to avoid that color which would lead to a lower win percentage. You are trying to rationalize the random dice generator with the outcome of games and those games are not won or lost simply by starts and dice rolls. Meh, I'm rambling... |
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Silex wrote
at 3:24 PM, Tuesday September 1, 2009 EDT The statistics are biased by the facts some good players tend to avoid the yellow color, or pick only certain colors, thus fucking up the distribution.
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skrumgaer wrote
at 3:33 PM, Tuesday September 1, 2009 EDT If you sit red, you can lead players to a table you like; if you sit teal, you know who your opponents will be.
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skrumgaer wrote
at 3:39 PM, Tuesday September 1, 2009 EDT Drug dealers and other low lifes often signal their lowness by being the first or last off an airplane; also, a particular player sitting at a particular color may be signalling a particular PGA strategy.
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NoTruces wrote
at 3:40 PM, Tuesday September 1, 2009 EDT Although I appreciate the sincerity of the alternative explanations, I also have to highlight that they are sincerely wrong.
I explicitly played at the lower 100 tables to avoid such color biases. (Plus, why would anyone in their right mind play at the 2k+ tables where the results are predetermined through the well published techniques.) Although yellow is a color associated with being a chicken (even though I have never seen a yellow chicken), why would purple be more intimidating than red or brown? The statistics are solid and it now a well established fact: purple clearly wins more often and yellow loses more often. The dice distribution algorithm needs to be overhauled. |
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NoTruces wrote
at 3:46 PM, Tuesday September 1, 2009 EDT Interesting, except sitting red or teal based on (spit on the ground) PGA strategy does not explain the results for purple.
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skrumgaer wrote
at 3:56 PM, Tuesday September 1, 2009 EDT No truces:
Why not post the raw data? |