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New Kdice Luck Stats - Attn: Math geeks
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Windwalker wrote
at 10:17 AM, Wednesday November 12, 2008 EST
As far as I can tell the luck stat is a simple one sided calculation that works like this: (roll / potential roll)*100 = Luck % ...
I don't know for sure if that's how it is calced, but I bet it is pretty close to that. So let's look at this example: You roll a 3 v 4 and win. In this situation you rolled a 8 and the other guy rolled 7... Happens all the time. According to the luck stat, your luck is now 44%. But you just one a 3v4! And your luck is mathematically less then 50%! Something isn't right! In that situation, the 4 dice holds an 80.8% advantage over the 3, but in this example the three won, but his luck stat shows his luck is less then 50%... You just got lucky, and the math doesn't reflect it... So what I'd like to do, is offer Ryan a new algorithm for calculating luck. Something that takes into account both players rolls... Not just potential rolls... I've been working on it, but haven't come up with a good one yet, so I am looking for feedback... If you've never written these types of calculations, here's what I'm looking for specifically- 1. The Algorithm should take into account probability of a successful engagement 2. The algorithm should have no more then 4 variables (2 is ideal: Note - the fewer the variables taken into consideration, the lighter the server load) 3. The algorithm should have a scalable attribute to it (per roll, per game, per per month, per career) There is a resource table of win/lose probabilities located at the bottom of: http://kdice.wikispaces.com/ I look forward to seeing what you folks come up with, even if it doesn't get deployed, it is a nice mental exercise... Sincerely, Wind |
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ChristianSoldier wrote
at 8:32 AM, Thursday November 13, 2008 EST Luck can be isolated for a single roll, but as you try to apply it to a larger context (like whether that roll mattered much) you will increasingly fail.
Considering that spectrum, the logic would be to focus on stats that are close to the small case: a probability counter for a player's current streak of wins or losses is possible and would have some math geek value. |
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skrumgaer wrote
at 8:37 AM, Thursday November 13, 2008 EST bc:
I looked at your site. Data heaven! One thing that Ryan could do is have pattern recognition: For this particular map, and this particular round, what previous games most closely resemble the current situation and what was the most likely outcome in that set of games. The trick would be to measure "most closely resemble". Perhaps least square error in distribution of dice. |
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ChristianSoldier wrote
at 9:27 AM, Thursday November 13, 2008 EST heh.
Consider the space of game board configurations. It is about (8 * 8) ^ number of territories. You would have to compress this space extraordinarily (and rather abitrarily) for the game samples available to have any impact. Plus this is a wildly non-linear and non-convex optimization problem. The difference between a 3v3 and a 4v3 and a 5v3 is not linear. Good luck with that. |
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 8:13 AM, Monday November 17, 2008 EST bump, Ryan, can you take a look at my suggestion?
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Ryan wrote
at 8:51 AM, Monday November 17, 2008 EST kruez, thats actually the current calculation!
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what_is_1 wrote
at 8:40 PM, Friday May 25, 2012 EDT What about the luck of how you restack?
Sometimes it is very important to have a good stack; ie. well concentrated on a particular flashpoint. If you end up with all your new dice in the corner it may mean that you cannot expand and your future dice earning will be lower meaning lower capacities. There is no way of measuring this luck though as players will disagree over which strategy is best and hence have different assessments of what a good restack is and how lucky you are. Looking at this and the previous discussion i think we should not say that it is luck in any way that is shown, because you cannot represent luck numerically. rather say specifically what calculation the number is the result of. |
