ugb:

I think that the major drivers, for good or ill, will be international.

First, China. I think that China cannot sustain its rapid growth rate and it is headed for an economic crackup. When that happens, there will be a decline in world demand for oil and that will tend to keep oil prices down.

Second, Taiwan. China wants it. China may decide to take it.

Third. Iraq and Afghanistan. We will need a resolution in this theater for us to make better long term decisions. I think a popular movement will rise against the Taliban in the northwest provinces. The Taliban may be great at subverting but they are not so great at governing. Overall I am optimistic.

Fourth. Iran. Anything can happen.

Fifth. Oil prices. Oil prices will probably stay low (unless something happens with Point 4) which will derail massive changes to alternative energy, but research and development will continue.

Sixth. Maybe we won't get out of it. In that case I refer you to www.survivalblog.com.

Don't forget pakistan, skrum!

-The analogy was simply to adress who is responsible for the situation, and it IS the government. It was not to establish a way of solving the problem, although it is a start.

-I noticed you didn't answer the question. And it is not the same as wish's question, it would be more like if he asked "are you old enough to vote, and does that change the validity of your posts?" which the answer would be no. My argument has been that those defaulted loans set off the chain of events which put us where we are, and had those loans not been defaulted on, we would not be in this situation. Therefore if you prevent the defaults, you prevent the problem. You can call this over-simplistic all you want, but you can't argue that it is true.

-If you had to read between the lines "a lot" to draw that conclusion then i think you should rethink who your original post was directed at. From that statement, i can only conclude that you either don't know what "in its principals" means, or what "extrapolated" means... maybe both.

-I never stated a solution, all i ever said is that there needs to be regulation. Its not like i've laid out a ten year plan... It also seems like you have trouble distinguishing the amount of weight i put on statements. Your acting like i'm blaming McCain for the whole debacle. All i said is that McCain supported and voted for a deregulation which has put us in the situation we are in. Which he did.

-Agreeing that there need to be legal guidelines is agreeing that the government should be parenting citizens, what do you think regulation is? Also, just because you find some merit in providing some legal guidelines in mortgage loans DOES mean you agree with my post. All i did was support regulation, i did not go much deeper than that.

-Im tired of going round in circles posting the same thing again and again, i will post again when something new comes up...

Also, your kinda scarin the crap outa me with that last one skrum.

"My prediction - alternative energy (though we might be about 5 years to early for the stars to align for this to happen)."

Alternative energy had been my guess as well, but now I think our next bubble may be sufficiently far off to be too hard to predict.

An alternative energy bubble IMO required 120$+ oil and also required massive government subsidization and incentivization. Neither of these now seem likely.

With a worldwide recession, and strengthening dollar, oil will remain low. With a domestic recession, massive post-Bush debt, and contracting tax revenues, I don't think Obama is going to be able to finance speculative green energy investments.

If things economically turnaround in a few years, and in the meantime there are some massive efficiency improvements in solar, batteries, biofuels, etc. that make those technologies more feasible the NEXT time we hit 120$ oil, then we might have that bubble.

"Me too. Evidence suggest you are a moron. Let me know when you have something that suggests otherwise." There you go making yourself look foolish again.

I always admit when i'm wrong, and i haven't ignored anything. And if your not scared by the idea that the world will not come out of this recession, then there is something wrong with you buddy. Although i do find this very unlikely and was saying that for fun.

Let's all congratulate Pat & UGB on turning skrum's perfectly good forum post into a pissing contest!!!!

JDizzle:

My thoughts on Pakistan.

Pakistan is a huge country, with a population (250 million) of the same order of magnitude as the United States. Ten times bigger than Iraq.

Probably the best approach for the U.S. with Pakistan is to minimize trade barriers. The more US/Pakistan trade, US/India trade, and India/Pakistan trade, the less likely that the region is going to blow up.

Well, you do know that if we want to "get Bin Laden".... we'll have to get into Pakistan, right?

No problem. We make a PGA with some Waziristani locals.

lol. we're electing a new Ryan