Forum


Code is broken
Valis wrote
at 7:54 PM, Wednesday June 13, 2007 EDT
I lose easily 80% of 4v3s & 5v4.

There is supposed to be roughly a 70% chance of winning these rolls.

What's the deal?

« First ‹ Previous Replies 11 - 19 of 19
gohstlee wrote
at 11:59 PM, Saturday June 16, 2007 EDT
Yep. No one remembers when a 4v3 wins. Only when they lose. Keep strict track on day, it'll surprise you..... how fair it is, I mean.
General Nonsense wrote
at 8:48 AM, Sunday June 17, 2007 EDT
You should calculate your odd of losing that many in a game! Then you'll figure out how "lucky" you to be able to do that...
HBergeron wrote
at 9:36 PM, Sunday June 17, 2007 EDT
well, i recorded the results of 120 straight 8v8 rolls of mine (not every roll in the game) a combination of offense and defense, and won 23 of 120 of those rolls. There is generally acknowledged to be a problem with the rnd() function in java - that it does not produce results that follow probability in relatively limited datasets (ie. it tends to be streaky) but the details of that are far above my pay-grade. It was widely agreed many months back that so long as the results were apparently random for the players that it wasn't a problem.
JKD wrote
at 2:08 PM, Monday June 18, 2007 EDT
^

It looks like you're saying each roll you had much less than the expected 50% chance of winning (because you were on a bad streak)?

So if the rolls of player X are low, do you think they shall remain that way (unless they miraculously get on a lucky streak). And then each player's luck streakiness resets when they start a new game?

Or was it possibly coincidence? It would be good to know. Because if you have two opponents with 5 eight-stacks, and your rolls are much more likely to beat one than the other, that changes a lot of strategies.
WayneR0oney wrote
at 2:26 PM, Monday June 18, 2007 EDT
HBerge, your stats are skewed because the odds of winning and defending are different so it would vary if you were attacked more than you attacked someone else.
redsox5445 wrote
at 7:05 PM, Monday June 18, 2007 EDT
Even though I think the code is fine and people normally win the rolls they should this is what happened my last game.

WillyWanka's turn
guive defended 5v4: 9 to 14 (1,4,1,2,1 to 1,3,4,6)
redsox5445 defeated 6v4: 24 to 10 (5,6,2,3,6,2 to 1,3,3,3)
redsox5445 defended 5v4: 15 to 17 (2,4,6,2,1 to 6,4,4,3)

M4TCH's turn
WillyWanka defended 3v2: 7 to 8 (1,1,5 to 4,4)
Krangar defended 5v4: 17 to 17 (6,2,2,6,1 to 3,6,6,2)


Thats 4 out of 5 defends on dice advantages and 4 out of 4 on one dice ones
BrutalBob wrote
at 5:09 AM, Tuesday June 19, 2007 EDT
not wanting to risk 5v4 i took the safe 5 v 2 option

BrutalBob's turn
Bandi defended 5v2: 9 to 9 (1,1,3,1,3 to 5,4)
HBergeron wrote
at 8:14 AM, Tuesday June 19, 2007 EDT
wow, wr, way to miss the point, even if you assume that all of my 8v8s, 120 in a row, were attacks, 17% wins is far out of whack, and 120 is quite a statistically significant sample size.
HBergeron wrote
at 8:15 AM, Tuesday June 19, 2007 EDT
excuse me, 19.1% wins - no reason not to be exact here
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