Forum
A better definition of luck
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PeteyC wrote
at 5:07 PM, Monday March 4, 2013 EST
Every attack has an expected value for the number of dice the attacker or defender expects the other to lose. For instance, in a 5 v 3, the attacker has a 90.9% chance of eliminating 3 dice for the defender, and a 9.1% chance of losing 4 dice for himself. The expected value from the attacker's POV is thus: (.909 * 3) - (.091 * 4) = 2.36 dice. The defender's expected value is -2.36.
If it were possible in each game to keep track the amount by which every player exceeded (or fell short) of the expected value of the rolls he participated in, you'd have a "gross luck" for that player. Dividing that value by the absolute value of the sum of all the expected values of that player's rolls would give you a luck "rate". The theory behind using a rate is that having, say, five dice worth of bad gross luck in your first few rolls is probably enough to knock you from the game, while having that same amount of bad luck over ten rounds is hardly bad luck at all. I'm inspired to suggest this idea by frustration over having obviously terrible luck in a game and not even getting the consolation of having the "luck" statistic confirm it. |
Replies 1 - 4 of 4
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jurgen wrote
at 4:57 AM, Tuesday March 5, 2013 EST interesting approach
it would be cool to compare it with the current luck stat because I agree that the current luck % hardly reflects the impact of a few key early losses |
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ehervey wrote
at 7:48 AM, Tuesday March 5, 2013 EST not sure about the math but i agree with the concept.
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finesse (>'-')> wrote
at 2:31 PM, Tuesday March 5, 2013 EST This is clever. But I have to wonder what will be gained by achieving even perfect, omnipotent luck statistics.
If I followed you around and recorded each of your games then sat with a team of both mathematics and kdice veterans, determined how important each of your rolls were to your success and then rated how generous your start was along with your expected dice vs. actual dice after every roll, would you really be that pleased with this information? At the end of the day, we'd just be able to confirm with some pseudo-objectivity what any decent player watching already knows. |
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greekboi wrote
at 4:21 PM, Tuesday March 5, 2013 EST interesting. i'll keep this in mind next time i update
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