I have mentioned a few times that the sum of the bond prices of the top three contenders in the Iowa Policital Stock Market for the Iowa Caucuses has been consistently in excess of $1.00, while in a perfectly rationally traded market they should sum to less than $1.00. This supposedly irrational pattern has persisted more than a week, which made me start to suspect that maybe I overlooked something.

Sure enough, when I looked at the Prospectus (any time you are thinking of buying securities, read the Prospectus first!), I found that the bonds for the top *two* finishers in the Caucuses will each pay $1.00, so a package of bonds for all the candidates will cost $2.00 instead of $1.00.

So shorting the top three contenders will not net you a guaranteed profit.