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weird luck on this game sometimes
roustor2 wrote
at 10:54 AM, Friday September 25, 2009 EDT
weird luck on this game sometimes

Replies 1 - 6 of 6
pooncrust wrote
at 3:48 PM, Friday September 25, 2009 EDT
yeah... luck is a bitch.

Like in the game I just played...

I lost a 4v2 in round one, being left with nothing. So I tried to survive.
Then is round 6 I suicided with the result of winning a 2v4 and having 51.1% and 6th in a game that was already over in round one.

so I guess those 51.1% pretty much say that I'm a bad player, only getting 6th even though I got amazingly high luck.

On another note: this is probably one of the most fucked accounts luckwise...
So shame on the people who created it!
Salibaba wrote
at 10:32 AM, Saturday September 26, 2009 EDT
i did notice you have a a lot more luck if you make a new account.
you have high luck like for 4/5 games then it come down as everybody else
the brain wrote
at 8:18 PM, Saturday September 26, 2009 EDT
I did notice a lot of players have a really bad understanding of statistics and anyone who does knows that in order to 'proof' a statistical significant correlation between being a new player and having higher luck for the first 5 games would take hundreds if not thousands of samples.

Occam's razor works exceptionally well here: you got 'high luck' in your first 5 games? Well, the simplest explanation is that you were just that, lucky.

Of course I'd challenge anyone to proof me wrong by creating a stastically significant test: say by creating a couple of thousand new accounts played by bots, logging every die roll they make in the first X games (X is unknown, since an 'increased luck' hack might as well last 10 games, or more, or less). Check the die rolls either by individual dice (expected to average around 3.5) or by expected win percentage (depends on the attack), given enough samples the occurence of the mentioned statistical anomaly might be tested.
But for the sake of the server I hope nobody is crazy enough to do that :P. (but if you're still reading and really want a challenge: try to find a decent solution to AI in kdice, even for just a 2 player game it is a very complex problem, traditional AI will not cut it)
trendz wrote
at 9:08 PM, Saturday September 26, 2009 EDT
trendz's turn
Ajedrez defeated 8v8, 34 to 9, (3,6,4,1,4,5,5,6 to 1,1,1,1,1,2,1,1)

Lowest 8 roll ive seen. Pretty crazy!
kjhkuyg wrote
at 3:44 PM, Sunday September 27, 2009 EDT
Luck has nothing to do with it. The game is obviously fixed by the house. Some of the dice probabilities on Kdice are so wildly and consistantly improbable that the only explanation is some sort of interferance. Random probability just doesn't cover it. When it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck. The game is fixed.
Realize wrote
at 4:29 PM, Sunday September 27, 2009 EDT
How many dice rolls are their in a single game? How about in a day? with so many rolls, probability holds that they are going to occur in some pretty unbelievable patterns. The odds of 8 dice rolling an 8 (1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1) occurring every day are fairly good. the odds are 1/6 or.16666 to the 8th power.
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