Forum
14 month <50%... luck is a piece of shit
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Louis Cypher wrote
at 12:05 PM, Tuesday March 24, 2009 EDT
We've had luck-statistics for 14 month now. I have finished all of them with less than 50%.
Anybody willing to top this? |
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Firinneach wrote
at 12:24 PM, Tuesday March 24, 2009 EDT Louis, under 50% luck is the norm. Check most anyone's profile. 50% does not seem to be the average. Look at the leaderboard and you'll notice the luckiest five are always almost always just above 50%, whereas the unluckiest are quite a bit below.
Now if your luck was consistently below 48% month after month you might be an unusual case, but looking at your stats you seem to be usually 49 point something, which is the same as most anybody that plays any number of games. |
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Louis Cypher wrote
at 12:51 PM, Tuesday March 24, 2009 EDT which proofs, that the rotten statistics are a piece of crap.
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kakku man wrote
at 5:06 PM, Tuesday March 24, 2009 EDT equal rolls
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TheGreatGatsby wrote
at 5:23 PM, Tuesday March 24, 2009 EDT Someone out there has 1000% luck. His name? ack...hers. Fiero
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MadHat_Sam wrote
at 12:51 AM, Wednesday March 25, 2009 EDT luck should be around 49-50% based on even rolls defending by default.
But Louis, we know your luck is bad, dude it has been bad forever I don't think even CAPNlager can top you for terrible luck. I think a true luck stat would be average value per dice roll. People should average 3.5, it would be cool to see who averages more or less. RYAN THE MASSES DEMAND THIS> |
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wiggin1 wrote
at 3:50 AM, Wednesday March 25, 2009 EDT Mathematically, I'm quite confident that everyone who has played more than a handful of games will have that value be exactly 3.5 or extremely close.
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mr Kreuzfeld wrote
at 5:47 AM, Wednesday March 25, 2009 EDT ryan told me the formula, and if all dierolls where totally random,the luck should be 50%, (that is concidering the chanse of a draw). so it boils down to this, either there is a part of the programming that gives the defender to high dierolls ( luck is only attacking luck), or the chanse for a draw is abit to high, that could be because random comp numbers are by default non random.
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unknown4057723 wrote
at 5:48 AM, Wednesday March 25, 2009 EDT Interesting. So that's why I lose those 4v3s way too often. :)
Can I see the formula too? |
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Louis Cypher wrote
at 10:16 AM, Wednesday March 25, 2009 EDT Of course you can not see the formula. At some point the AI behind dice misplacement and figuring the point of the game for the most painful unlikely loss is unchallenged on this planet and will be sold for huge amounts at some point. But of course the "luck"-statistics do not account for that...
BTW, luckiest every month is well above 50%, isn't he? So you should expect a leading 5 every once in a while for a month. Or the numbers just don't work. |
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Firinneach wrote
at 11:11 AM, Wednesday March 25, 2009 EDT I don't know. I suspect anyone that ends the month with luck above 51% probably hasn't played a significant number of games. I haven't seen any regular players with luck over 50%, but even if they're out there I think they're the exception.
It seems a lot easier to get low luck scores than high ones too. I mean, it's not hard to think about those games you die by round two or whatever and your luck is 20-30%. Happens every couple days probably. But how often (if ever) do you finish a game with a 70-80% luck stat? It makes sense, because the games where you get a few bad rolls in a row will have a crap luck score and you're done, whereas when things are going ok and you live longer, you're luck will even out more (law of high numbers, right?). But I wonder if those bad games don't also tend to drag people's luck stats down over time. |