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attn: Ryan/skrum
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montecarlo wrote
at 8:40 PM, Monday September 22, 2008 EDT
since there have been a couple of mentions of PPG and how the people in the lead have only played one or two lucky games...
i seem to remember several months back that skrum mentioned PPG as a possible statistic, but he claimed that PPRG (points per ROOT game) would be a fairer calculation instead of PPG. skrum, would you please reintroduce us as to why PPRG is more fair than PPG? and Ryan, if skrum's reasoning is reasonable (theres a good chance that i just misremembered everything), would you be up for changing PPG to PPRG? |
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skrumgaer wrote
at 9:25 PM, Monday September 22, 2008 EDT PPG and PPRG would be exactly the same if you have played only one game!
So PPRG could still be misleading. But with PPRG you would be more willing to play more games. The analogy I gave was comparing home run hitters of the older shorter season (Maris, Mantle, etc.) with those of the newer longer season. The number of home runs per at bat is likely to have a variance proportional to the number of at bats, so the standard deviation of runs per at bat would go as the square root of at bats, and the number of home runs hit per standard deviation would be a better measure than total home runs or home runs per at bat. But PPRG would induce more play. Suppose you have played one game and your PPG was 300. Under PPG, you would have to get more than 300 on the second game to improve your PPG. Under PPRG, you could improve your PPRG if your score on the second game was more than +125. Hitters' batting averages are not counted if they have not played enough games. |
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ChristianSoldier wrote
at 10:57 PM, Monday September 22, 2008 EDT Monte wrote his thesis on the monte carlo method. He's playing dumb here.
PPRG makes no sense. |
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skrumgaer wrote
at 3:10 PM, Tuesday September 23, 2008 EDT For the top 5 PPG'ers, here are their PPRG and their PPRSGE (points per root score game equivalent). The PPRSGE is the square root of the product of the score and PPG. For background on the score game equivalent, see my previous post.
player PPRG PPRSGE UpmaxM 2281 2142 aliactasunt 2158 918 ernesto 2042 749 wishbone 1906 1683 jss 1391 1304 |
