luck should be below 50% if Ryan is basing it on a players attacks. Which would make the most sense, so over time everyone should average ~48-49% luck.

...

Yes, i am Unlucky! How did you knew?

shit, if your talking statistics, yes, everybody should be below 50%. whether im unlucky or not should not depend however on the TOP 100, but on the middle 100. the top one hundred of course representing a combination of skill and luck. the middle 50 representing no more skill than the 49 or 51 percentile, but possibly more luck. i have no idea what would be an overalll skill test. i apparently am lucky.

Madhat,

I'm not math illiterate, but I'm not wrapping my mind around what you said. Why would basing luck off of attacks only result in an average luck of less than 50%?

And with that question I'm completely ignoring the other obvious question which is: "Why the hell wouldn't you factor in defensive rolls in a luck calculation?"

Defender wins ties, so chance of a sucessful even dice attack is <50%. Since a large chunk of the rolls in the game are 8v8's you get <50% luck. This is a very simplistic explanation as there are some other factors but it works to show why you would expect to find luck for a month <50%.

the stats are wrong, as simple as that.

Madhat,

I can see why your successful attack percentage would be less than 50%. What you say is, of course, 100% true with respect to defender wins.

But luck should be a comparison of outcome to expected value. If the outcome matches the expected value--ie if you lose 8v8 more often than you win them--then your luck should be 50%. You are getting exactly what is expected.

If a player wins a lot of 8v8 attacks then he should have a luck rate > 50%. My question is that would you not expect that the winners (top 100 players) not to win those 8v8s more often than expected, thus having a luck score > 50%?

I have a very sneaky suspicion that luck is being calculated very wrong here. Especially if defense rolls are not counted. I can see no logical reason not to count those.

(I can, however see a programmatic reason, but with the overall complexity of the game, I would imagine those issues to be negligible by comparison and defensive rolls included).

Anyway... Like I said, I'm no mathematician, so what the hell do I know.

People tend to quit in a game after a few bad hits (with luck lower than 50%).
I think that's about it :)

My sense of the Luck statistic is that is not a measure of one's luck with rolling the dice. It happens to be a measure of one's skill at kdice relative to X LUCK X. So, basically we are all less than half as good at this game than X LUCK X was.