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the kdice are rigged against the attacker
mikersj wrote
at 3:24 PM, Thursday March 13, 2008 EDT
I did a small sample analysis, has anybody else done something similar? It seems to point out two things.
1) I may need a bigger sample
2) The attacker is at a disadvantage for rolling higher numbers

These are the percentages for the attacker or the defender rolling a specific value. Assuming a fair random generator, all the values should show up 16.67% of the time.

Die combined attacker defender
1 17.36% 18.26% 16.17%
2 17.04% 17.13% 16.92%
3 17.52% 15.17% 20.68%
4 16.24% 17.42% 14.66%
5 16.24% 17.98% 13.91%
6 15.59% 14.04% 17.67%
total 622 356 266

I took this from 1 or 2 games on one of the low point tables. Obviously there were more attacker dice(356) than defender dice(266).
But if the attacker has a 17.67% chance of getting a 6 and the attacker only has a 14.04% chance. Obviously the attacker is going to lose more rolls than if the attacker and defender had an equal chance.
Similarly if the attacker rolls 1 18.26% of the time, but the defender only rolls a 1 16.17% of the time then the attacker is going to lose more often.

Anybody else notice this?

Replies 1 - 5 of 5
ltsply2 wrote
at 3:36 PM, Thursday March 13, 2008 EDT
I ran a chi-square test on your numbers... They do not significantly deviate from expectation.
MadHat_Sam wrote
at 4:09 PM, Thursday March 13, 2008 EDT
math pwnage.
jurgen wrote
at 5:13 AM, Friday March 14, 2008 EDT
interesting check

1) I agree with letsply2
2) I would say you would need at least 10 entire games
3) I once was frustrated with all my 8v7 losses that came frighteningly close to 50%. I stopped noting them down because it was never gonna be enough data and I realised I was just jinxing myself
MadHat_Sam wrote
at 11:37 AM, Friday March 14, 2008 EDT
and attacker wins like 46% anyways thanks to ties going to D. So you should expect a little difference, especialy in prolonged 8v8 battles.
captainLAGER wrote
at 3:08 PM, Friday March 14, 2008 EDT
on the other hand, what motivation would ryan have to rig the game!? ever thought of that?
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