I have the same feeling, i got only in 2 of 20 games a luck rate that is higher than 48

yep, the average luck is more less than 45% for a lot of players
in january, was more 48%
i saw at least 7 times 6v3 failed just yesterday ^^
so i havent complain when i lose some 5v2 the first turns o'_'o

Welcome to my life!!

The randomness for the rolls didn't change.

The probability table that I use to calculate luck had two values changed slightly. They were slightly off. I thought this would move luck closer to 50% but it looks like its going the other way. I'll need to take another look at this probability table,

Please note that the probability table is NOT use to determine rolls.

With the lower rates for luck, players that connect early and large, dominant quickly. Then others flag early. The game can be decided by turn 6 or 7. The rest of the game is dedicated to taunting the player in last place who won't flag.

Again, the probability table is NOT use to determine rolls.

Which means it does not change gameplay... its only an after game stat.

hmm
everybody have less than 50% because people try 4v3 or 3v1 MORE than 3v4 or 6v8 rolls.
but this month is about 45%, that's is strange.

"The probability table that I use to calculate luck had two values changed slightly" what is that exactly? ^^

i have a very bad day too,
in 32 games, i have more than 24 where i play last or 6th the first turn. so difficult to win with only 1 or 2 stacks...
i lose 2000pts today...
i'm not a member :C
o'_'o

I think Ryan is trying to say that he modified the table he uses to figure out the value to display for luck. He did NOT change the way the dice roll.

The whine factor had definately been increased this month.

Well, maybe people are whining because it feels different. Even if the rolls are still the same, it doesn't feel that way. I'm not saying that anything did change, as I'm still gaining points. It just seems like there are more 6v2 losses etc.

Ryan,
Only you know what's changed, to be sure, but something very much 'feels different' about the way the dice are rolling. But then again it could just be my perception.

On another note, I have some ideas and questions about how the luck is calculated.

When you report luck, is it all about the dice averages? So for instance:
If I attack 8v1 three times, and get 40's each time, but then I attack once 8v8 and get a 17 or something my luck would look pretty good - correct? Similarly, if I am being attacked 4v1 three times and I get 6's each time, but still lose, and then am attacked 2v3 and get 3 3's against 2 sixes, statistically my dice would be lucky. But that game would offer no 'experience' of luck. Know what I mean?

Or is it more about the outcomes? For instance:


In my last game - if i counted right - I was in about 23 8v8 battles. I won 4. The game went to round 39 and I was on a long peninsula, so each turn consisted of: one attack, one loss as a general rule. Now for this match my luck was reported as 39% - which is already particularly low, but it's luck so whatever, that's not the point. The point is that my experience that game in terms of expected outcomes was much lower even than 39%. Closer to maybe 20%. Here's why.

And again, I have no idea how luck is actually calculated, these are just some ideas and speculations. So here we go.

Let's say I'm in the middle of the map. I have a significant empire of 8 stacks, but I am surrounded by smaller, 8 stacked enemies. Let's say that for our purposes the game began this way, so there is no history of rolls clouding the luck calculations already for this match. Now, if the luck is based on dice rolls - and not on outcomes - watch what might happen.

Let's say I attack four times, once per enemy surrounding me. And yes I know that would be poor strategy. Regardles... And that on each one of these rolls I get a 30. This is higher than statistically expected, and one might say lucky. But each one of my enemies gets a 31. Lucky for them; unlucky for me. Now they each attack me one time, and I again roll well, and they again roll slightly better. Statistically my dice were lucky. But battle wise lucky them; unlucky me. Which is to say luck is relative in a game like this. My luck is contingent on their luck. Which I imagine could make for some very complicated calculations.

But what if luck is based on expected statistical outcomes, and deviations from those outcomes. So that there is always a slight expectation that when you attack someone evenly stacked that you will lose (because a tie is a loss), and similarly a slight expectation that you will win when defending and evenly stacked? And your luck is decided not at all on your dice as much as outcomes (which corrects for the relativity of dice luck). On the extreme end, if every battle was evenly stacked and you won every one then you would have 100% luck for that match.

A strictly 'dice luck' would also be good, indicating how likely any given dice roll deviated from the expected 3.5 outcome.

Anyways, I love the game and thank you for the time and thought you put into it! Rock on.

ephraim