No, Att:Def is not about luck. It's just a ratio of your attacks to defends throughout the game. So if you had 570 attack and 430 defends your ration would be 57:43. It means you were more aggressive than defensive.

Luck however is the sum how you did on each attack and defend throughout the game based on the attacks dice probability table (7v4 is more unlucky to loose than 7v6). So if you won a bunch 8v2s you would be very mildly lucky but if you won a 2v8 you're luck would jump drastically, in proportion to the probability of winning.

Well, I know my above guess isn't right because I jut played in a game where I won 0 attacks and defended 0 attacks yet it says 40:60 with Luck 30%. Can someone explain them for me?

The Att:Def stat doesn't take into account whether or not you won the roll.

The luck stat does.

Thanks for starting a thread about this goob and thank you ryan for the closest thing to a description of what the luck statistic is I've yet encountered. However, I'm still not clear what the proportion represents. The statistic clearly centers around 50%. Does this represent the proportion of the time your attacks/defends had the expected outcome? It does not sound like that from your description. In fact, all of the descriptions I've heard so far seem to indicate this percentage value is not a probability or proportion figure at all, but rather a weighted index centered around zero, plus 50. Even with the guess that this is not actually a proportion, which helps clarify what it is meant to represent, I am still not clear how a given outcome affects the value or by how much. Is there some more detailed way you can describe how "Luck" is calculated?

Thanks.

Thank you!

Any plans to include one's starting position into the luck factor Ryan?

The only reason its a percentage is because I thought it was the clearest way to talk about luck. Like a coin flip your probability of winning is 50%. You'll approach this percentage the more flips you make. I think it should be the same with kdice rolls that you'll approach 50% the more rolls you make.

The actual calculation is the sum of your roll probabilities centered around zero. If you have an 99% chance of winning 1 is added when you win and -99 when you lose.

I don't have a math degree so it may seem strange but it has the effect of averaging out to 50. I'm open to suggestions to improve or clarify this stat.

I do have a Math degree, which is likely why I'm so interested in what all these numbers mean. I think your idea of centering around zero and adding one for winning a 99% attack is a great idea. The whole thing works out just fine as long as your percentages for a win vs loss in any given roll is accurate.

The only criticism I have is that the above only accounts for one's luck in rolls, but has nothing to do with situational luck which accounts for about half of one's chances at doing well in a game.

Situation luck is stuff like how far apart your lands are to start the game, how many lands you have on your first turn, how often your first turn is last, how close your cluster of lands is to a corner, restacks, opponents restacks, etc. Admittedly, most of the above are very difficult, if not impossible, to enumerate. So ignore me and keep up the good work, you're doing a great job!

I also have a Maths degree and was wondering the same thing. I like the idea of the luck statistic - gives me an excuse for losing ;)

I also wondered if there is a way of expressing 'positional' luck, or even in the restacks. But I suppose luck in that sense all depends on the players interpretation of position.

There is definitely situational luck in terms of position, stacking, and also decision making from other players. You could say that when players make bad choices you are lucky. It can get pretty complicated.

It would be great to measure it all but I don't think it would ever be entirely clear. But if someone wants to think about ways to measure these other types of luck I'd definitely be interested.

So, the roll luck that is currently measured doesn't tell the whole store but it is a fairly concrete number.

Actually, there is one thing that it does not take into account, Ryan. My sheer inability to defend +1 attacks is astounding. No, it's not unlucky not to defend a +1 attack; however, it IS unlucky not to defend ANY, right?