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SKILL BREAKDOWN:
SodaPop wrote
at 1:47 AM, Sunday September 23, 2007 EDT
after seeing bcmatteagles thread, id thought id breakdown the skill involved in this game.

discuss:

The skill involved in this game:

-reading other players moves
-playing the board [bottle necks]
-playing the scoring system [when to flag]
-knowing your odds [when to attack]

*persuading other players

But you can still do all this well in a game and end up 7th.

80% chance 20% skill

if you are all basically even after the 3rd round, 50% chance, 50% skill

discuss

Replies 1 - 2 of 2
JKD wrote
at 3:49 AM, Sunday September 23, 2007 EDT
If you can convince people to kill off your islands and threaten your biggest threats that helps a bit.
azala wrote
at 4:58 PM, Sunday September 23, 2007 EDT
Breaking down "skill" and "luck" on a per-game basis is completely useless, just like if you did so for poker on a per-hand basis ("Wow you played those pocket aces really well!").

Playing 400 games means your standard-deviation "luck" factors in at about 1/sqrt(400) or 1/20th of what it is on a per game basis.

I know that I play about 3x better, pointwise, when drunk - probably from playing a better social game. I speculate, then, that the breakdown over the long run is about:

75% social ability (everything from PGAs to short-term truces)
20% technical ability (good moves, if you were playing against 6 non-social computers)
5% luck

You could also watch the players with the best points-per-game ratios and figure it out from them. o_O
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