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The real unpredictable/luck factor in the new system
kdw wrote
at 12:19 PM, Friday September 21, 2007 EDT
Of course, we can ignore all the "I lost a 5v2, it's all luck" bullshit.

But under the new system, there _is_ a new luck factor that makes endgames unpredictable, and that's this:

It matters a lot who flags when, and who flags next to you, and whether they suicide their 8stacks, and who can access that neutral territory. The real x-factor in late game play is neutral territory. Who can get to it, and how heavily stacked it is.

For example, I've seen several games now where a middle player suddenly takes control when 1 corner suicides and flags, and the middle person is the only one who can reach those territories. It can be a total gimme. The player goes from 6 territories, dueling for 2nd or 3rd, to having five more easy pickins 1spots, and suddenly the game is over.

This kind of luck -- being in the right place at the right time, when someone suicide flags -- drastically alters a lot of games. It's not unusual for even a weak 3rd place player to be able to decide the outcome between 1-2, by the choice of how to flag (8stacks or suicide).

I don't know that there's a good way to control for this. For example, one option would be to take flagged properties out of the game altogether. But then, players might be permanently boxed in and unable to fight.

Or, all flagged property could automatically set to 1stack. That wouldn't completely fix things, though. It would just continue to advantage people who were lucky enough to be next to a flagger.

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