I have observed the scores in the new system, and done some spreadsheet simulations, and have a few remarks to make.
1. In five days, the total number of points created in the system is probably around 30,000. Points are created only when players have their negative scores reset to zero. Points cannot be created in the 100+ tables or higher because autoflagging prevents negative scores on those tables.
2. Ryan does not tell us how many total points are in the system but such can be estimated by looking at players’ scores and ranks. For example, if I see Sandermatt sitting at a table and he has 102 points, and he ranks 268th, then he and the 267 players above him each have at least 102 points, for a total of 27,336 points. The number of points in the system is greater than the product of any player’s rank and score.
3. I have done some simulations by spreadsheet of the expected score of a player playing other kdicers of equal skill. Under the old system, the typical kdicer played 300 games a month. Under the new system, games are shorter, so I will assume 600 games for the month. Suppose a win is worth 18 points, and second through seventh place average to -3, and the probability of a win is 1/7 and second through seventh is 6/7. The likely score of a player after the first 600 games is in the range of 120 points or so, which is also the average “draw” of points that the player has made from the bank. He is likely to be bankrupt from 5% to 8% of the time, mostly at the start when he is getting launched. As the typical player will have a score around 120 at the end of the first month, most of the action will be taking place at the 100+ tables then.
4. When the current 60,000 kdicers have decided whether to play under the new rules or not, and the ones who decide to play have got themselves launched, the growth of points in the system will start to taper off, because for players who are already launched, additional points generated per player will drop. That is because they will spend a greater proportion of their time at the higher level tables, at which no new points are generated. When noobies come in, they will generate their 120 points the first month, so the system point total will grow at approximately 120 times the number of active players (those who play 600 games a month). So points per person will be roughly constant, except for a mild inflation generated by veterans who become bankrupt now and then and draw more points from the bank.
5. Veteran players who retire from kdice will withdraw points from circulation. The result will be point deflation. Whether deflation will match inflation remains to be seen. Perhaps Sinth could take over Ben Bernanke’s job as our Federal Reserve chief.
6. The old TAPL (Test Against Pure Luck) was calibrated to be the same order of magnitude as the Elo scores. Since Elo is gone, and the monthly score of a typical player is likely to be three digits, the new TAPL will be 3 digits instead of 4.