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Anyone know where to find the stats for ties?
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Booberry wrote
at 1:29 PM, Thursday June 7, 2007 EDT
I assume it is out there somewhere. I know if I hit an 8 stack with an 8, he and I have equal chances of winning. BUT.....if it is a tie, the defender wins. So my question is this...what is the chance of hitting a tie? At various levels of equal attacks (3-3, 4-4,...)?
For example, if it is a 2-2 and defender rolls a "2" then there is a 1/36 chance of tieing/losing. And if "D" rolls a 36 then there is a 36/36 loss rate. More important (to me) to know the 8-8 state. I know the total possible unique outcomes range from 8 to 48 and the total combinations is 6^8 or 1.679 million. I have been out of school too long to work this problem. I would rather play. Thanks |
Replies 1 - 2 of 2
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CaptSundrop wrote
at 2:20 PM, Thursday June 7, 2007 EDT I think the wiki has what you are ultimately looking for.
http://kdice.wikispaces.com/ The short version is that the attacker has a 44.4% chance of winning when attacking 2 on 2, and a 47.1% chance of winning when attack 8 on 8, with small changes for every combination of ties in between. |
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skrumgaer wrote
at 3:48 PM, Thursday June 7, 2007 EDT The sum of the probability of winning an x v y and the probability of winning a y v x and the probability of a tie has to equal one. So for the 2 v 2 it would be 44.4% + 44.4% + 11.2% = 1, or 11.2% for a tie. For the 8 v 8 it would be 47.1% + 47.1% + 5.8% = 1, or 5.8% for a tie.
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