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EXPLAIN THIS TO ME....
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trendz wrote
at 3:04 PM, Tuesday July 6, 2010 EDT
I lost every roll that people were attacking me. Then I win 4v4 and lose 5v2, and insta flag. HOW THE FUCK IS MY LUCK 41%?
Orlafede stands up trendz takes a seat Trebor Notlimah takes a seat shkurka takes a seat EddyB takes a seat Orlafede takes a seat Trebor Notlimah's turn shkurka defended 4v4, 10 to 14, (1,2,3,4 to 4,1,4,5) EddyB defeated 4v1, 15 to 2, (4,3,5,3 to 2) roque ja defeated 3v2, 9 to 4, (3,2,4 to 2,2) +5 dice shkurka's turn EddyB defended 4v4, 12 to 16, (1,6,2,3 to 3,4,3,6) EddyB defeated 4v4, 18 to 11, (5,5,4,4 to 2,1,5,3) trendz defeated 3v1, 12 to 6, (1,5,6 to 6) +6 dice EddyB's turn Orlafede defeated 3v2, 12 to 3, (5,6,1 to 2,1) droppinSCIENCE defeated 2v1, 7 to 3, (3,4 to 3) +5 dice Orlafede's turn Trebor Notlimah defeated 4v3, 13 to 11, (1,2,6,4 to 4,5,2) Trebor Notlimah defeated 4v2, 14 to 8, (4,4,5,1 to 4,4) Trebor Notlimah defeated 3v2, 10 to 8, (5,2,3 to 6,2) Trebor Notlimah defeated 2v1, 5 to 2, (1,4 to 2) trendz defeated 3v2, 9 to 6, (2,6,1 to 3,3) +8 dice droppinSCIENCE's turn shkurka defeated 4v3, 16 to 6, (6,5,4,1 to 3,2,1) Trebor Notlimah defeated 4v1, 14 to 6, (1,6,4,3 to 6) shkurka defeated 3v2, 8 to 5, (3,1,4 to 4,1) shkurka defended 3v2, 4 to 11, (1,2,1 to 6,5) shkurka defeated 2v1, 8 to 5, (4,4 to 5) +7 dice roque ja's turn droppinSCIENCE defeated 4v3, 17 to 7, (5,5,5,2 to 4,2,1) Orlafede defeated 5v2, 15 to 7, (2,4,6,1,2 to 5,2) droppinSCIENCE defeated 4v3, 13 to 10, (4,3,5,1 to 2,3,5) droppinSCIENCE defeated 3v2, 11 to 3, (4,4,3 to 1,2) shkurka defeated 3v2, 7 to 5, (3,1,3 to 3,2) droppinSCIENCE defeated 2v1, 7 to 5, (1,6 to 5) +8 dice trendz's turn shkurka defeated 4v4, 10 to 9, (2,3,2,3 to 6,1,1,1) EddyB defended 5v2, 8 to 9, (1,1,3,2,1 to 6,3) (-250 for 7th and -177 for dominance) Rank: 141st Score: -427 to 2452◆. trendz finishes 7th in round 1 35,271,346 EddyB Jul 6, 3:00 PM CDT 7th 0 8 % 50 : 50 41.3 % 1 2,879◆ (-427) 141st |
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StormLord wrote
at 4:03 PM, Tuesday July 6, 2010 EDT Luck on the stat page is calculated by: (1 + average luck) / 2.
trendz defeated 3v1 = -2.7% unlucky trendz defeated 3v2 = -22.1% unlucky shkurka defeated 4v4 = +54% lucky EddyB defended 5v2 = -98.8% unlucky average luck = (-0.027 - 0.221 + 0.4 - 0.988) / 4 = -0.174 (1 -0.174) / 2 = 0.413 41.3% |
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StormLord wrote
at 4:06 PM, Tuesday July 6, 2010 EDT The problem with average luck is it doesn't take into account the magnitude of the luck so:
50% lucky -50% unlucky 99.9999% lucky average luck = (0.5 - 0.5 + 0.999999) / 3 = 0.333333 ( 1 + 0.333333) / 2 = 66.66665% You've just won a 1 in a million roll and it's telling you you're only 66% lucky. |
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jurgen wrote
at 2:09 AM, Wednesday July 7, 2010 EDT Even if you ever could calculate luck correctly (simply based on the odds of winning the roll) it will never be able to take into account the importance of a roll: early round luck is more important, as is connecting luck or cut holding luck
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jurgen wrote
at 2:16 AM, Wednesday July 7, 2010 EDT actually: you know what would be interesting "luck stats" that are easy to calculate?
8v8 win% (which should be 47,1% for everyone in theory) average rolled /dice (which should be 3,5 for everyone in theory) |
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StormLord wrote
at 4:18 AM, Wednesday July 7, 2010 EDT Why 47.1%?
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jurgen wrote
at 4:28 AM, Wednesday July 7, 2010 EDT because the defender wins 52,9% silly!
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StormLord wrote
at 4:31 AM, Wednesday July 7, 2010 EDT Oh you're talking about the 8v8 roll.
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jurgen wrote
at 4:31 AM, Wednesday July 7, 2010 EDT and that's why I wanted 8v8win% and not just 8v8 luck% cuz that % also depends on your playstyle (meaning do you risk 8v8 a lot or not)
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StormLord wrote
at 4:42 AM, Wednesday July 7, 2010 EDT You can't effect luck by your playstyle.
Attacker gets +52.9% for a win. Attacker gets -47.1% for a loss. Defender gets +47.1% for a win. Defender gets -52.9% for a loss. |
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jurgen wrote
at 5:05 AM, Wednesday July 7, 2010 EDT You are very correct Storm: someone only making 1000 8v8 attacks should get the same luck% as someone only getting attacked 8v8 a 1000 times, assuming everyone gets 47,1 <-> 52,9 odds
But I am interested in a 8v8 win% stat (only for the 8v8 attacks YOU made, not counting defending wins), because if you count both att and def wins your playstyle would affect that percentage: if you only attack you d have 47,1-ish, if you only defen you would have 52,9-ish |
